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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming   
June 30, 2025 DOWNLOAD
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
Two people discussing a chart on a tablet
Economic Updates
Policy Rate Update: Dovish BSP Narrows IRD 
June 19, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Currencies 1 MIN READ

Dollar still headed higher after correction in Fed betting

July 15, 2022By Reuters
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Japan's Nikkei falls for fifth straight day as yen, Wall Street weigh July 10, 2023 Treasury yield surge reflects expectations of more long-term debt January 9, 2025 Oil rises as dollar eases, China seeks to soothe economic woes August 17, 2023

July 15 (Reuters) – The Fed doesn’t need to hike rates by 100 bps this month to prove it’s more committed to fighting inflation than the ECB or BOJ, so Treasury yield spreads over bund and JGB yields should remain attractive enough to turn dips into buying opportunities.

The question now, with the dollar index having rallied this week into a thicket of long-term resistance, is how big a correction might be.

With monthly RSIs at record highs some caution is advised, but to look for more than a short-lived dip, prices would have to close below the 38.2% Fibo of the post-June Fed meeting 103.41-109.29 rise at 107.04.

Even if the Fed hikes by 75 bps on July 27, rather than the extreme 100 bps briefly priced in after Wednesday’s hot CPI readings, the fed funds rate will still rise to 3.5% by year-end, versus maybe 1% for the ECB and nil from the BOJ, so a dollar index rise closer to 2001’s 121.02 peak remains possible.

(Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

This article originally appeared on reuters.com

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