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THE GIST
NEWS AND FEATURES
Global Philippines Fine Living
INSIGHTS
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
WEBINARS
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
DOWNLOADS
948 x 535 px AdobeStock_433552847
Economic Updates
Monthly Economic Update: Fed cuts incoming   
June 30, 2025 DOWNLOAD
equities-3may23-2
Consensus Pricing
Consensus Pricing – June 2025
June 25, 2025 DOWNLOAD
Two people discussing a chart on a tablet
Economic Updates
Policy Rate Update: Dovish BSP Narrows IRD 
June 19, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Currencies 2 MIN READ

Dollar rebound vs yen stuck under November low pre-CPI and Fed

December 6, 2022By Reuters
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EMERGING MARKETS-S.Korean won firms, other Asian currencies flat December 16, 2021 With China in focus, Biden plans $150 million commitment to ASEAN leaders May 12, 2022 Low volatility propping up risk appetite April 19, 2023

Dec 6 (Reuters) – USD/JPY fell modestly Tuesday after its 137.42 intraday rebound high from Friday’s 133.62 trend low faltered in front of November’s 137.50 low and the 61.8% Fibo of last week’s dive fueled by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and a deepening slide remains on the cards.

Friday’s decent jobs data and Monday’s ISM non-manufacturing beat lifted the expected Fed rates ceiling back to near 5% and 2-year Treasury yields about 13bp off last week’s lows, but it would take a sharply hawkish Fed guidance course correction to bring hike expectations back to their pandemic recovery peaks.

Even though USD/JPY is highly positively correlated with 2-year Treasury yields, USD/JPY and rates slid after the fourth consecutive 75bp Fed hike because of the bearish feedback loop aggressive tightening induced.

New multi-decade 2-10-year Treasury yield curve inversion depths Tuesday and rate cuts yet priced in for H2 2023 highlight this USD/JPY bearish feedback loop.

The Dec. 13-14 CPI and Fed meeting might provide a better level to join the pandemic recovery’s reversal. Above resistance by 137.50, hurdles are at 138.40 and by 139 and 140, with 132.55/46 downside targets.

(Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

 

This article originally appeared on reuters.com

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