The Gist
News and Features
Global Philippines Fine Living
Insights
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
Webinars
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
Downloads
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Quarterly Economic Growth Release: 5.4% Q12025
DOWNLOAD
investment-ss-3
Economic Updates
Policy rate views: Uncertainty stalls cuts
DOWNLOAD
grocery-2-aa
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: BSP poised for a string of rate cuts as inflation cools
DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Metrobank.com.ph Contact Us
Follow us on our platforms.

How may we help you?

TOP SEARCHES
  • Where to put my investments
  • Reports about the pandemic and economy
  • Metrobank
  • Webinars
  • Economy
TRENDING ARTICLES
  • Investing for Beginners: Following your PATH
  • On government debt thresholds: How much is too much?
  • Philippines Stock Market Outlook for 2022
  • No Relief from Deficit Spending Yet

Login

Access Exclusive Content
Login to Wealth Manager
Visit us at metrobank.com.ph Contact Us
Access Exclusive Content Login to Wealth Manager
Search
The Gist
News and Features
Global Philippines Fine Living
Insights
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
Webinars
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
Downloads
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Quarterly Economic Growth Release: 5.4% Q12025
May 8, 2025 DOWNLOAD
investment-ss-3
Economic Updates
Policy rate views: Uncertainty stalls cuts
May 8, 2025 DOWNLOAD
grocery-2-aa
Economic Updates
Inflation Update: BSP poised for a string of rate cuts as inflation cools
May 6, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Rates & Bonds 4 MIN READ

As hawkish Fed pricing goes away, bullish dollar calls fade

March 13, 2023By Reuters
Related Articles
EMERGING MARKETS-Singapore dollar, S.Korean won lead losses among weak Asian currencies April 18, 2022 Southeast Asian finance leaders discuss containing global risks March 31, 2023 BRIEF-Philex Mining Corp Says Philex Mines Independent Labor Union Voted Yes To Go On Strike December 27, 2021

March 13 (Reuters) – The collapse of two big US regional banks has forced the US bond markets into a near 180-degree turn from pricing in a more aggressive Federal Reserve and is eroding expectations the greenback could resume a new rally to fresh 20-year highs.

Emergency measures by the Fed and the US government on Sunday to guarantee bank deposits have failed to reassure markets after Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY) collapsed.

Since Thursday, the tumble in short-term US Treasury yields, which were at 15-year highs, was the steepest since October 1987, and pulled the dollar down from three-month highs.

Two-year yields fell as low as 3.939% on Monday, down more than a percentage point from a 15-year high of 5.084% reached last week, while 10-year yields dipped to 3.418%, from more than 4% last week.

The moves come as investors rush for safe havens and adjust for a less aggressive Fed in the wake of the bank failures. The dollar dipped 0.60% against a basket of currencies on Monday.

“The market is basically saying that the Fed is done here,” said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. “It wouldn’t surprise me if the market now will just try to continuously fade the Fed and won’t believe any kind of realm of hawkishness that emerges, and it’s not clear whether or not the Fed will continue to be hawkish.”

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell surprised markets last week when he said that the US central bank might reaccelerate the pace of rate hikes as it battles still-high inflation and benefits from a still strong employment picture. That sent Treasury yields sharply higher and boosted the dollar index.

But that prospect now appears off the table.

Fed funds futures traders now see the Fed as most likely to leave rates unchanged when it meets on March 21-22, or raise rates by 25 basis points, a dramatic change from last week after Powell’s comments before congressional committees, when a 50-basis points rate increase was viewed as the most likely outcome.

Some banks, including Goldman Sachs and NatWest Markets, have also said they no longer expect the Fed to raise rates this month.

Traders are also pricing for the Fed to cut rates this year, with the fed funds rate expected to fall to 3.80% in December, from 4.57% now. As of last week, traders had largely given up on the prospect of rate cuts this year.

“There are potentially heightened recession risks,” on the back of the financial stability issues, said Jonathan Cohn, head of rates trading strategy at Credit Suisse in New York.

While the market may retrace some of Monday’s sharp moves, “there are these kind of prevailing questions around the future provision of credit, of bank lending, that have to be answered before markets are going to price as aggressive of a hiking cycle as they previously were,” Cohn said.

Fed officials are in a blackout period before the March meeting, which leaves a dearth of guidance on the extent to which the financial stability risks may alter their view on further tightening.

Even if they repeat their commitment to bringing down inflation, investors may be unlikely to embrace the message to the extent they did only last week.

“If the market’s assumption as recently as a week ago was the Fed can and will continue to hike no matter what, that’s no longer, I think, the view, (and) it’s going to be very difficult for the market to come back to that view,” said Brian Daingerfield, head of F10 FX strategy at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.

“From a dollar perspective, that’s very important because the resetting of Fed expectations ever higher was a big part of the dollar rally we had seen before these moves,” he added.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by Alden Bentley and Jonathan Oatis)

 

This article originally appeared on reuters.com

Read More Articles About:
Worldwide News Philippine News Rates & Bonds Equities Economy Investment Tips Fine Living

You are leaving Metrobank Wealth Insights

Please be aware that the external site policies may differ from our website Terms And Conditions and Privacy Policy. The next site will be opened in a new browser window or tab.

Cancel Proceed
Get in Touch

For inquiries, please call our Metrobank Contact Center at (02) 88-700-700 (domestic toll-free 1-800-1888-5775) or send an e-mail to customercare@metrobank.com.ph

Metrobank is regulated by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Website: https://www.bsp.gov.ph

Quick Links
The Gist Webinars Wealth Manager Explainers
Markets
Currencies Rates & Bonds Equities Economy
Wealth
Investment Tips Fine Living Retirement
Portfolio Picks
Bonds Stocks
Others
Contact Us Privacy Statement Terms of Use
© 2025 Metrobank. All rights reserved.

Read this content. Log in or sign up.

​If you are an investor with us, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account. ​

If you are not yet a client, we can help you by clicking the SIGN UP button. ​

Login Sign Up