Stock Market Weekly: Local data releases in focus

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended the shortened trading week lower, down by 0.97% to close at 5,929.68 (-58.34 points). Bearish sentiment persisted throughout the week as the peso depreciated to an all-time low of PHP 59.3 against the dollar. Despite the US Fed cutting the US policy rate by 25 basis points, hawkish rhetoric from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding an unclear direction of monetary policy in the medium term further weakened sentiment. Additionally, weak demand was exacerbated by concerns about local exports after US President Donald Trump Jr. announced free trade agreements between the US and Southeast Asian nations, including Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we expect the market to trade sideways with a slight downward bias. Investors will digest key local data releases, such as inflation and unemployment, which are expected to rise sequentially month-on-month (m/m). Additionally, investors will also monitor a slew of corporate

earnings releases as well as the results of the MSCI Quarterly Index Review for Nov 2025, which could further shape market sentiment. Meanwhile, activity may remain muted as the market awaits the highly anticipated 3Q 2025 Philippine GDP print and as volume shifts toward Maynilad Water Services Inc. (MYNLD) on Friday.

Resistance: 6,300 / 6,200

Support: 6,000 / 5,800

ANALYSIS

The PSEi fell 0.97% week-on-week (w/w) to 5,929.68 (-58.34 points), reversing its earlier gains during the week. The main index remained range-bound, with the 5,900 level now serving as a key support. Momentum indicators continue to point downward amid persistent selling pressure. Overall sentiment remains cautious, and a sustained move above the 6,200 level would be needed to confirm a potential trend reversal.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Security Bank Corp. (SECB) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 96.00

SECB has been trading between PHP 70.00–80.00 for the past few months, now below all key moving averages (MA) (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day). Momentum indicators RSI and MACD remain near neutral territory, signaling that the stock may continue to consolidate over the short term. Nevertheless, we view the recent price weakness as an opportunity to accumulate the stock at a bargain.

Accumulate SECB at key support levels between PHP 66.00–68.00. Take profits at PHP 73.70 and set stop-loss limits at PHP 63.65. For long-term investors, we have a fundamental target price of PHP 96.00.

Bloomberry Resorts Corp. (BLOOM) | SELL | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 5.26

BLOOM is trading near support levels at PHP 3.0, hovering below key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day). Momentum indicators are signaling strong downward pressure, with RSI hovering at oversold levels. With both fundamentals and technicals indicating bearish sentiment, we suggest selling at current levels.

Recommendation: Selling BLOOM at current levels is advisable. To turn bullish, we prefer to see green shoots that signal a bottom in the VIP segment, such as a recovery in foreign tourist arrivals.

OceanaGold (Philippines), Inc. (OGP) | TRAILING STOPS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 36.00

OGP has pulled back sharply after a strong rally, falling below its 20-day moving average (MA) and approaching support near the 50-day MA. The recent correction suggests that short-term momentum has weakened, with the MACD showing a bearish crossover, signaling increasing selling pressure. Meanwhile, the RSI has dropped near oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels. Overall, OGP appears to be in a short-term correction phase after an extended uptrend, with the 50-day MA likely serving as a key test of support.

For those with existing positions, implementing trailing stops to protect profits and manage risk is advised.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2025 on Monday, November 3, 2025 (estimates: 50.3, prev.: 49.9)

2. US JOLTS Job Openings for September 2025 on Tuesday, November 4, 2025 (estimates: 7.2 million, previous: 7.2 million)

3. PH Inflation Rate y/y for October 2025 on Wednesday, November 5, 2025 (estimates: 2.6%, previous: 2.5%)

4. PH Unemployment Rate for September 2025 on Thursday, November 6, 2025 (estimates: 4.1%, previous: 3.9%)

5. PH 3Q 2025 GDP Growth Rate on Friday, November 7, 2025 (estimates: 5.2%, previous: 5.5%)

6. US Nonfarm Payrolls for October 2025 on Friday, November 7, 2025

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)