Stock Market Weekly: Expecting “big bold reforms”

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) climbed 1.8% week-on-week (w/w), gaining 116.53 points to close at 6,464.67. The market began on strong footing, extending the prior week’s momentum amid sustained foreign inflows. However, sentiment weakened mid-week as the peso continued to slide to record lows, reaching PHP 59.46/US dollar on Wednesday.

External headwinds also weighed on risk appetite, tracking weakness in US equities as the investigation into US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced concerns over the central bank’s independence. Nonetheless, bargain hunting and sustained foreign inflows provided steady support towards the week’s end, though profit-taking tempered further gains.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we expect the local bourse to continue trading sideways with a slight upward bias. Sentiment may improve as the market digests the government’s recently announced “big bold

reforms” aimed at restoring investor confidence, including measures to improve ease of doing business and normalize public infrastructure spending. From the foreign front, focus will center on the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation – the US Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – with October and November 2025 prints projected to ease slightly to 2.7% (Sep 2025: 2.8%).

However, gains may be capped should the peso continue to depreciate and overseas yields remain elevated, with the US 10-year breaching the 4.2% level for the first time since September 2025. Additionally, oil prices are expected to rise by PHP 1.80–2.00 per liter for diesel and PHP 1.00–1.20 per liter for gasoline amid continued pressure from geopolitical tensions.

Resistance: 6,560/6,500

Support: 6,200/6,190

ANALYSIS

The PSEi rose 1.8% w/w, closing at 6,464.67 (+116.53 points), and is currently moving within an ascending channel that reflects sustained bullish momentum. The index extended its uptrend after breaching the 200-day moving average (MA) and now trades firmly above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs, reinforcing the strength of the rally. Meanwhile, the RSI has entered overbought territory, while the MACD remains in an uptrend and above the signal line, both pointing to robust upward momentum but also signaling caution for potential near-term consolidation.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 28.00

ALI is on an upward momentum after dropping to its all-time low at around PHP 18.00, while it is currently trading above key moving averages (MA) (20-day, 50-day, and 100-day). The price action is also showing higher highs and lows, which signals bullish momentum. Moreover, the 20-day MA has developed as a strong support to the stock, while MACD remains above the signal line, indicating a strong upward trend.

Accumulating on support at the 20-day MA around PHP 22.80–22.90 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 25.30 and set a stop loss at around PHP 21.65.

Bloomberry Resorts Corp. (BLOOM) | BUY | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 5.00

BLOOM is on a downward trend, currently trading at all-time low levels, while trending below all key moving averages (MA) (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day). However, the MACD is currently trending above the signal line, which may signal bullish momentum. Moreover, the stock shows a double bottom at the strong support level of the PHP 2.55–2.60 area, which indicates a potential breakout and limits potential downside.

Accumulating on current levels at the 50-day MA around PHP 2.75–2.85 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 3.10 and set a stop loss at around PHP 2.55.

SSI Group, Inc. (SSI) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 3.1

SSI is currently exhibiting strong bullish momentum, trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages (MA). However, the stock is still trading within its 200-day MA and is at the upper Bollinger Band, which may indicate a potential short-term pullback before resuming its upward move. Meanwhile, momentum indicators remain supportive, with RSI at healthy levels and the MACD suggesting continuation of its uptrend.

Accumulating SSI once it pulls back to PHP 2.73 is advised to take advantage of the temporary retracement. Lock in gains at PHP 3.00 with a stop loss below PHP 2.59.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. US GDP final growth rate quarter-on-quarter (q/q) for 3Q 2025 on Thursday, January 22, 2026 (previous: 4.3%; estimates: 4.3%)

2. US Initial Jobless Claims as of January 17, 2026, on Thursday, January 22, 2026 (previous: 198k; estimates: 205k)

3. US PCE Price Index year-on-year (y/y) for October 2025 on Thursday, January 22, 2026 (previous: 2.8%; estimates: 2.7%)

4. US PCE Price Index y/y for November 2025 on Thursday, January 22, 2026 (estimates: 2.7%)

5. US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indes (PMI) Flash for January 2025 on Friday, January 23, 2026 (previous: 51.8; estimates: 52.1)

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)