Stock Market Weekly: Anticipating rate cuts

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) managed to eke out modest gains last week, closing at 6,022.24 (+0.42% week-on-week, or by +25.11 points), as sentiment was buoyed by expectations of a rate cut at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) Monetary Board meeting on December 11, 2025.

Globally, the case for a December US Fed cut strengthened following softer US retail sales and consumer confidence slipping to a seven-month low. However, the local market remained choppy amid lingering concerns over the ongoing corruption scandal, which kept trading broadly volatile.

On a positive note, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed the Philippines’ “BBB+” long-term sovereign credit rating with a positive outlook, providing a confidence boost and helping the index finish the week in the green.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we expect the market to trade with a mild upward bias as anticipated rate cuts from the BSP and US Fed draw closer. Moreover, S&P Global’s reaffirmation of the country’s “BBB+” credit rating suggests expectations for improving macro conditions, with the positive outlook hinting at a potential upgrade within 12–24 months if fiscal and economic trends continue.

Resistance: 6,300

Support: 5,800

ANALYSIS

The PSEi rose 0.42% w/w to 6,022.24, bouncing from 5,800 support levels. Price action remains slightly bearish, with the index trading below all key moving averages (MA). However, the RSI is currently near oversold territory, indicating a potential rebound. The index may retest 6,300 resistance levels or the 20-day MA, which shows a potential breakout to the 6,500 levels.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Universal Robina Corp. (URC) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 95.00

URC is currently trading close to its all-time low and remains below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), underscoring persistent bearish momentum. However, the stock has recently shown early signs of a potential reversal as it attempts to retest its 20-day MA. Accumulating on breakout at MA 20-day around PHP 68.50 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 75.35 and set a stop loss at around PHP 65.00.

SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 32.00

After breaking support at PHP 21.85, SMPH fell to a multi-year low of PHP 18.85. From oversold territory, the stock staged a rebound, gaining momentum and crossing above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A consolidation above this level would signal a likely continuation of the uptrend. Accumulating once SMPH pulls back around the PHP 21.85 support level is advisable. Take profits at PHP 25.13 and set a stop loss below PHP 20.10.

Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 330.00

JFC is currently trading at its 3-year low and remains below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), underscoring persistent bearish momentum. However, the stock has recently shown early signs of a potential reversal as it attempts to retest its 20-day MA. Accumulating on breakout at MA 20-day around PHP 201.00 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 221.00 and set a stop loss at around PHP 190.50.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1) US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November 2025 on Monday, December 1, 2025 (previous: 52.5; estimates: 51.9)

2) US Initial Jobless Claims as of November 29, 2025, on Thursday, December 4, 2025 (previous: 216k; estimates: 220k)

3) PH S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November 2025 on Monday, December 1, 2025 (previous: 50.1; estimates: 50.4)

4) PH Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year (y/y) for October 2025 on Monday, December 1, 2025 (previous: 1.01%; estimates: 1.30%)

5) PH Inflation Rate y/y for November 2025 on Friday, December 5, 2025 (previous: 1.70%; estimates: 1.60%)

6) PH Foreign Exchange Reserves for November 2025 on Friday, December 5, 2025 (previous: USD 109.70 billion)

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)