Stock Market Weekly: Selective bargain hunting

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) slipped 0.65% to 6,109.21 (-39.92 points) as investors remained cautious amid mixed domestic and global headwinds. Locally, sentiment declined amid ongoing Senate discussions on controversial flood control projects.

Additionally, the July unemployment rate climbed to a three-year high of 5.3%, further weighing on investor confidence. On the international front, renewed tensions in the Middle East raised concerns over rising oil prices. Meanwhile, the US August 2025 inflation came in at 2.9% year-on-year (y/y), up from 2.7% in July, adding to market pressures.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, we expect the market to trade sideways with a slight upward bias, as recent declines may prompt selective bargain-hunting. With limited domestic data, investor attention is likely to

remain on the anticipated 25-basis-point US Fed rate cut, amid softer US jobs data, which may influence market direction and provide marginal support to the peso later in the week.

Resistance: 6,200/6,300

Support: 6,100/6,000

ANALYSIS

The PSEi slipped by another 0.65% week-on-week (w/w) to close at 6,109.21 (-39.92 points), just above the 6,100 support. Recent volume spikes highlight sustained selling pressure, with RSI indicating weakening momentum but approaching oversold territory, and MACD remaining in bearish alignment. Overall sentiment stays cautious, though a technical rebound may emerge if the 6,100 level proves resilient.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Century Pacific Food, Inc. (CNPF) | BUY | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 35.00

CNPF is currently trading above its 20-day moving average (MA) and has recently broken past its 50-day MA. Momentum indicators show that the RSI is in neutral territory, while the MACD maintains its upward trajectory. The break above its 50-day MA, coupled with sustained MACD move toward positive levels, reinforces signals of continued uptrend.

Accumulating at current levels around the 50-day MA is advisable. Take profit 15% above entry price and set stop loss limit 8% below entry price.

Ayala Corp. (AC) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 627.00

AC had been consolidating since December 2024, trading sideways within a defined range. However, in early September 2025, the stock broke down, falling below its former support at PHP 545. This breakdown which indicates selling pressure has overtaken buying interest, with momentum indicators also suggesting potential for further declines.

Accumulating AC once it breaks above PHP 545 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 627 and set stop loss limit below PHP 500.

Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) | BUY | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 41.00

ALI has broken above its PHP 28.39 resistance level and is now trading above all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), reinforcing bullish momentum. The MACD remains above the signal line, while the RSI at ~64.8 suggests there is still room for further upside.

Accumulating ALI at current levels around PHP 29.90 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 34.39 and set stop loss limit below PHP 27.51.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. PH Cash Remittances for July 2025 on Monday, September 15, 2025 (previous: USD 2.99 billion)

2. US Fed Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, September 18, 2025 (estimates: 4.25%; previous: 4.5%)

3. US Initial Jobless Claims for September 2025 on Thursday, September 18, 2025 (estimates: 240k; previous: 263k)

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)