Stock Market Weekly: Reinforcing a supportive policy backdrop

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose 1.47% week-on-week (w/w) to 6,036.72, rebounding from a cautious, range-bound start to close back above the 6,000 level. Caution dominated early sessions, with the Philippine peso sliding to a record low of PHP 59.22 last Monday.

Sentiment improved later in the week following the widely expected 25-basis-point (bp) rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and the US Federal Reserve, which helped lift risk appetite. The BSP reduced its policy rate to 4.50% (previously 4.75%), citing easing inflation and the need to support domestic growth amid global uncertainties. Similarly, the US Fed lowered its target range to 3.50–3.75%, marking its third consecutive cut this year to sustain economic momentum and counter slowing demand. Despite the stronger finish, participation remained selective, with foreign investors continuing to trim exposure, leaving gains largely driven by local flows.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

This week, the market is expected to trade with a modest upward bias as investors continue to digest the recent rate cuts, reinforcing a supportive policy backdrop. The Philippine peso, which hovered near PHP 59/USD last week, is likely to firm slightly on seasonal remittance inflows and a retained interest rate differential, supporting currency stability. Globally, focus will shift to US labor and inflation data, with unemployment at 4.4% in November and inflation easing toward 3%, signaling a resilient economy and contained price pressures that should support risk appetite and a steady Fed policy stance.

Resistance: 6,200

Support: 6,000

ANALYSIS

The PSEi rose 1.47% w/w, closing above the 6,000 level after bouncing off immediate support at 5,800. The index is currently trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (MA), reflecting improving momentum. Both the RSI and MACD are trending upward, with the MACD showing a bullish crossover. A decisive break above 6,200 could confirm a trend reversal, while failure to hold above 5,900 may signal renewed weakness.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

ABS-CBN Corp. (ABS) | SELL | NO CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE

ABS is currently at its all-time low, trading below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day). Momentum indicators are signaling strong downward pressure, with RSI hovering at oversold levels. This is backed up by the MACD trending below zero, while the stock has yet to show any signs of retesting the 20-day MA. With both fundamentals and technicals indicating bearish sentiment, we suggest selling at current levels. In the absence of positive catalysts for a turnaround in operating and financial performance, selling ABS at current levels is advisable.

SSI Group, Inc. (SSI) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 3.10

SSI is currently trading on an uptrend, recently breaching its strong resistance at the 20-day moving average (MA). It has also broken above the 50-day MA, showing strong signs of recovery from one-year lows. The MACD levels also show that the stock is on bullish momentum and is ready for a potential breakout. Furthermore, a decisive breakout above the 100-day MA level could pave the way for a significant recovery. Accumulating on breakout at the 100-day MA around PHP 2.67 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 2.94 and set a stop loss at around PHP 2.53.

Top Line Business Development Corp. (TOP) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | NO CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE

It is currently trading above its 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages (MA), signaling that the short- to medium-term uptrend remains intact. However, momentum indicators are showing signs of weakening, suggesting easing buying pressure. With IPO investors likely taking profits, the stock may experience a short-term pullback or consolidation before the trend

resumes. Accumulating once TOP pulls back near its 100-day MA of PHP 1.50 is advisable. Take profits at PHP 1.73 and set a stop loss limit below PHP 1.38.

KEY DATA RELEASES

1. PH Cash Remittances year-on-year (y/y) for October 2025 on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 (previous: 3.7%)

2. PH Business Confidence for 4Q 2025 on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 (previous: 23.2)

3. US Unemployment Rate for November 2025 on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 (estimates: 4.4%)

4. US S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Flash for December 2025 on Tuesday, December 16, 2025 (previous: 52.2)

5. US Inflation Rate y/y for November 2025 on Thursday, December 18, 2025 (estimates: 3.1%).

(First Metro Securities Disclaimer: We obtain our information from sources we believe are accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Our content consists of opinions, not investment recommendations, and you should perform your own research before making any investment decisions. First Metro Securities is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from the use of this information.)

(Metrobank Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)