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Navigating the stock market rally and reality in 2026
Is it a new story for the new year? Know what is in store for the Philippine stock market.
By Charles Randy Lumhod and Willie Kristofferson Yu
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The Philippine stock market had a lackluster 2025. A stock market rally in the first days of the new year is a sign of emerging optimism. Still, a look at key economic indicators warrants a cautious outlook and defensive strategy.
What went down in 2025?
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) was down 7% year-on-year in 2025 amid concerns over weak corporate earnings, subdued economic growth, and political noise.
Analysts’ consensus forecast of 9.5% year-on-year (YoY) earnings growth for PSEi companies is a hard reach. With core earnings expanding 4.6% YoY during the January to September period, achieving that would require a 24% surge in the fourth quarter.
Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group-Equities Team estimates full-year 2025 earnings growth to settle within 5%-6% YoY.