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Peso GS Weekly: Navigating the 2026 supply shock
As the holiday calm gives way to new fiscal realities, the local bond market is recalibrating a significant rise in the government’s quarterly bond issuance plan.
By Metrobank Local Currency Trading Department and Janssen Roman
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What happened last week
At the beginning of the week, the market opened in a consolidation phase, with trading activity remaining largely range-bound and muted as participants navigated mixed client flows. While some investors sold short-dated securities to raise liquidity for the holidays, others selectively accumulated bonds in the belly of the curve, such as the RTB 5-18. Consequently, yields across most tenors closed flat or within a narrow two-basis-point range, reflecting a market where investors hold on to their bonds.
Mid-week, momentum shifted abruptly following the Bureau of the Treasury’s announcement of a PHP 500 billion bond issuance plan for the first quarter of 2026, a substantial increase from the PHP 365 billion in the same quarter of 2025. This news triggered immediate de
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