We see sideways trading with an upward bias this week, especially with the anticipated influx of data that may influence trading.
With lower-than-expected inflation in November and the cancellation of the auctions of the Bureau of the Treasury, we may see more demand for peso bonds at current levels.
Geopolitical conflicts, lingering supply constraints, and the compounding effects of El Nino may keep inflation elevated. For now, we shave off a few percentage points from our inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024.
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As we near the end of 2023, we may need to adjust our portfolio and strategy.
We expect yields to continue to trend lower. A reduced borrowing program for December may result in better buying interest.
We can expect sideways trading with a slight downward bias on some profit-taking this week.
Despite higher GDP growth in Q3, higher costs in transport, oil, and power rates can cause an upward tilt to near-term inflation.
Given the scarcity of supply in long-term bonds, we recommend loading up on duration in upcoming auctions.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept rates steady after an off cycle hike in October. Meanwhile, the stock market is expected to trade upwards this week.
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