March 2024 Updates: Still chasing moderate growth

Philippines headline inflation rose more than expected to 3.4% year-on-year in February from 2.8% in January, mainly driven by an increase in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages. January and February recorded the same month-on-month growth at 0.6%, suggesting that inflation is not yet slowing sequentially.

Meanwhile, the National Government (NG) posted a larger budget surplus of PHP 88 billion for January 2024 compared to the PHP 45.7 billion recorded a year ago, reflecting an increase of 92.25% YoY or PHP 42.2 billion, driven by a faster 21.15% YoY increase in revenue collection outpacing the 10.39% expansion in government spending. The budget deficit is seen ending lower at PHP 1.36 trillion (-5.1% of GDP) this year versus the PHP 1.51 trillion (-6.2% of GDP vs. -6.1% est.) recorded for full year 2023.

We are maintaining our outlook on the following key macroeconomic indicators:

For more information on the performance and outlook for several macroeconomic indicators, as well as local macroeconomic news, please download the full report below: