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Economy
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Monthly Recap: The beginning of the easing cycle’s end
Sluggish growth, stable inflation, and a pause in the US Fed’s easing were January’s highlights
February 6, 2026
By Metrobank Research
By Metrobank Research
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Here are the key economic events in January 2026 and what to look out for.
Key points
- Philippine Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed even further in Q4 2025 to 3.0%, its lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, bringing full-year GDP in 2025 to 4.4%.
- Inflation in January settled at 2.0%, starting the year off within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s target.
- The US Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle during its January meeting, as US economic growth showed some resilience.
What now?
- With the Philippines’ economic rebound likely to occur in the latter half of the year, Metrobank revised the full-year GDP growth forecast for 2026 downward to 5.2%.
- We also still expect a cumulative 50 bps of rate cuts from the BSP to support a slowing economy.
(Disclaimer: This is general inves
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