DOWNLOAD
June Economic Updates: Headline inflation could be down due to rice tariffs
Metrobank Research has earlier revised its forecasts, owing to the recently approved rice tariff reduction.
By Metrobank Research
(UPDATED July 18, 2024) The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) maintained their growth assumptions at 6.0%-7.0% for 2024 during DBCC’s 188th Meeting on June 27, 2024.
Philippines headline inflation slightly increased to 3.9% year-on-year in May (0.1% month-on-month). This brings the year-to-date average inflation from January to May 2024 to 3.5%.
Metrobank Research has revised its FY2024 and FY2025 forecasts to 3.3-3.6% and 3.3-3.7%, respectively, owing to the recently approved rice tariff reduction from 35% to 15%.
As of June 27, the USD/PHP exchange rate reached a year-to-date (YTD) high of 58.92 due to BSP Governor Remolona’s more dovish remarks on the policy rate path.
The National Government’s (NG) budget deficit reached PHP 174.9 billion in May 2024, increasing by 43.10% (PHP 52.7 billion) from the previous year’s level.
Headline inflation could be down due to rice tariffs
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) maintained its target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate at 6.50% and reduced its risk-adjusted headline inflation forecast for this year and 2025 to 3.1% from 3.8% and to 3.1% from 3.7%, respectively.
Download