Inflation Update: A steady price rise opens rate-cut door

Consumer prices rose 1.7% year-on-year in October, at the same pace as in the previous month. This keeps year-to-date inflation at 1.7%, below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2%-4% full-year target.

Key points

• Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, decelerated to 2.5% from 2.6% in September.
• Utilities and food continue to drive headline inflation in October, although largely offset by rice prices.
• The extension of the rice import ban to the end of the year and the OPEC’s recent decision to cut output hikes in the coming months could pose upside risks to inflation in the near term.

Related article: Inflation Preview: Food and utilities rising on varying paces

What’s next

• Metrobank maintains its view that full year inflation will settle at 1.8%.
• Given the pace of month-on-month changes in consumer prices which could spill over to the next year, we revised our full-year 2026 forecast to 3.3% from the previous 3.6%.
• Below target inflation will provide room for the BSP to continue its easing cycle with a 25 basis-point policy rate cut in December.

(Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)

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ECONOMIC UPDATES     

Inflation Update: Steady and mellow

There may be room for one more rate cut in 2025

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