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GDP Preview: Rates boost yet to come
Sustained policy easing will usher in faster growth in 2025’s start.
By Maria Kaila Balite, Marian Monette Florendo, Yoshitaka Hirakawa, and Ezra Vidar
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Households and businesses may start to feel the impact of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s monetary easing toward the end of the third quarter (Q3) and beyond.
With surges in private spending and investment not yet in the cards, Metrobank Research sees annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.5% in Q3, compared with the 6.3% expansion in the April to June period.
That should bring year-to-date growth to 5.8%. Metrobank Research’s full-year average forecasts remain at 5.7% in 2024 and 6.2% in both 2025 and 2026.
Here are our key takes on Q3 GDP data, which is scheduled for release on November 7:
Chirpier consumers soon
High interest rates and elevated inflation kept consumer spending soft in the first half. Tepid consumption will likely extend into Q3, as BSP’s policy easing t