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Forecast Update: Adjusting growth, inflation outlook
It was a ‘crude’ awakening triggered by US-Iran tensions.
By Metrobank Research
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Global crude prices soared by around 20% over the weekend, breaching the USD 100 per barrel level on Monday for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Unlike in the Russia-Ukraine episode, crude prices are likely to stay elevated a bit longer.
Critical oil infrastructure have become targets, magnifying oil supply risks given the role of the Middle East and the US in the global oil trade. Given limited storage facilities, oil producers are also forced to halt production as oil shipments continue to be blocked in the Strait of Hormuz. These events suggest there is still no end in sight for the geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices.
US Fed: Patience is a virtue
Worsening global crude supply restraints point to higher oil prices and, in turn, higher inflation in the US. T
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