Stocks rise as inflation bets boost rate cut hopes

Philippine stocks climbed on Wednesday amid expectations of slower March headline inflation, which could strengthen the case for a Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) rate cut next week.

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) rose by 1.08% or 66.96 points to close at 6,247.68, while the broader all shares index increased by 0.74% or 27.24 points to 3,705.12.

Philippine financial markets were closed on Tuesday in observance of Eid’l Fitr.

“The market rose further amid expectations that inflation had remained cool last March, giving the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas more room to cut policy rates this April,” Philstocks Financial, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said in a Viber message.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release March consumer price index (CPI) data on April 4 (Friday).

Headline inflation likely settled within 1.7% to 2.5% last month, the BSP said on Monday. If realized, this would be slower than the 3.7% inflation print in March 2024.

At the upper end of the BSP forecast, inflation likely accelerated from 2.1% in February.

The low end of the forecast showed inflation may have slowed below 2% for the first time since the 1.9% print in September 2024. It could also mark the slowest inflation since 1.6% in May 2020.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts conducted last week yielded a median estimate of 2% for the March CPI.

BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. last week said there is a “good chance” that the Monetary Board will cut rates by 25 basis points at their April 10 meeting.

“Philippine shares traded in the green as the market saw mixed results after Eid’l Fitr. The US market continued to face pressure from tariff policies and weak economic data,” Regina Capital Development Corp. Head of Sales Luis A. Limlingan said in a Viber message.

Almost all sectoral indices went up on Wednesday. Financials surged by 2.85% or 67.88 points to 2,442.37; mining and oil climbed by 1.58% or 150.08 points to 9,622.93; services increased by 1.19% or 23.67 points to 2,004.40; property rose by 0.47% or 10.68 points to 2,262.75; and holding firms went up by 0.39% or 20.09 points to 5,128.56.

Meanwhile, industrials went down by 0.37% or 33.08 points to 8,724.77.

“Monde Nissin Corp. was the top index gainer for the day, jumping 4.7% to PHP 7.57. Jollibee Foods Corp. was at the bottom, falling 3.67% to PHP 231.20,” Mr. Tantiangco said.

Value turnover rose to P6.06 billion on Wednesday with 1.31 billion shares traded from the PHP 5.35 billion with 1.15 billion issues exchanged on Monday.

Advancers bested decliners, 110 versus 82, while 54 names closed unchanged.

Net foreign selling stood at PHP 259.87 million on Wednesday, a reversal from the PHP 249.68 million in net foreign buying recorded on Monday. — R.M.D. Ochave