PSEi seen range-bound with Philippine-US talks in focus

Philippine shares may move sideways this week amid a lack of fresh leads and as the market awaits updates on President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s trip to the United States, where he is scheduled to meet with US President Donald J. Trump as part of efforts to negotiate the country’s 20% reciprocal tariff rate.

On Friday, the bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) halted its three-day slide as it rose by 0.13% or 8.17 points to close at 6,303.72, while the broader all shares index went up by 0.35% or 13.14 points to 3,736.28.

Week on week, however, the PSEi was down by 2.42% or 156.16 points from its 6,459.88 finish on July 11.

“The PSEi briefly breached the 6,500 level during the week before concerns were raised on the US’ 20% tariff on Philippine exports,” online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a market note.

“The PSEi corrected slightly higher [on Friday] ahead of the US trip of President Marcos to meet US President Trump that could include negotiations towards a possible trade deal,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in an e-mail.

Mr. Marcos headed to the US on Sunday to meet with Mr. Trump. Besides trade discussions, the two heads of state will also talk about closer cooperation in defense and security matters.

For this week, the market could take its cue from the Trump-Marcos meeting, Unicapital Securities, Inc. Equity Research Analyst Peter Louise D.C. Garnace said in a Viber message.

“We anticipate range-bound trading in the local bourse this week amid the lack of strong catalysts,” Mr. Garnace said.

“On the local front, we see investors positioning ahead of President Marcos’ State of the Nation Address on July 28. Furthermore, investors will also be closely monitoring corporate results as the second quarter earnings season kicks off,” he added.

He said they expect the PSEi to trade at the 6,300 to 6,400 range this week.

Mr. Ricafort put the PSEi’s immediate support at 6,105-6,200 and immediate resistance at 6,500.

For its part, 2TradeAsia.com placed the index’s immediate support at 6,300 and resistance at 6,500-6,550.

“Beyond the upcoming earnings cycle, attention should pivot towards the potential for robust growth stories into 2026. Outsized spending plans, particularly in infrastructure, are poised to be significant catalysts, with further anticipated Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas rate cuts potentially prompting a follow-on wave of private capital expenditure,” it said.

“The market’s dance between sectors enjoying revenue momentum plus domestic policy tailwinds versus those exposed to external trade frictions or regulatory shifts has yet to crest. Position accordingly and catch the wave,” it added. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave