Philippine external debt service bill dips to USD 7.5 billion at end-July

The Philippines external debt service burden declined by 5% at end-July as less foreign loans matured, preliminary data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

Debt servicing on external borrowings slipped to USD 7.53 billion in the first seven months from USD 7.935 billion in the same period last year.

Broken down, principal payments dropped by 12.2% to USD 2.894 billion from USD 3.296 billion a year earlier.

Interest payments inched down by 0.1% to USD 4.636 billion from USD 4.639 billion the previous year.

“The slight year-on-year decline in the external debt servicing bill could largely be attributed to lower share of foreign borrowings in the (National Government’s) total borrowing mix in recent years to better manage or minimize risk of forex (foreign exchange) losses entailed in foreign borrowings,” Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

Based on its fiscal program, the National Government (NG) plans to source 81% or PHP 2.11 trillion of its PHP 2.6-trillion financing from local lenders this year, while the rest will be from foreign lenders. Domestic borrowings were slightly higher in this year’s borrowing mix versus the 75:25 borrowing mix in 2024.

“Furthermore, lower foreign debt maturities in recent months also reduced external debt servicing,” Mr. Ricafort added.

The debt service burden represents principal and interest payments after rescheduling, according to the BSP.

This includes principal and interest payments on fixed medium- and long-term credits, including International Monetary Fund credits, loans covered by the Paris Club and commercial bank rescheduling, and new money facilities. It also covers interest payments on fixed and revolving short-term liabilities of banks and nonbanks.

However, the debt service data exclude prepayments on future years’ maturities of foreign loans and principal payments on fixed and revolving short-term liabilities of banks and nonbanks.

In the seven months to July, the debt service burden as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) stood at 2.9%, slightly lower than  3.2% a year ago.

Based on the latest BSP data, the country’s outstanding external debt stood at a record USD 148.87 billion in the April-June period.

This brought the external debt-to-GDP ratio to 31.2% at end-June, higher than 28.9% seen a year ago.

Mr. Ricafort said less foreign debt and lower borrowing costs of other central banks such as the US Federal Reserve could partly reduce the foreign debt service bill for the rest of the year.

“For the coming months, lower share of foreign borrowings in the NG total borrowing mix and any further reduction in Fed rates and other global interest rates could somewhat help reduce or at least temper future external debt servicing bills,” he said.

For the next three years, the NG’s programmed financing mix consists of 77% domestic borrowings and 23% foreign.

“However, this would also be a function of future NG budget deficit that would lead to additional NG borrowings, including external debt,” Mr. Ricafort added.

The latest government data showed that the country’s budget deficit widened by 15.15% year on year to PHP 1.117 trillion as of September. This was 71.6% of the government’s PHP 1.56-trillion ceiling for 2025.

The BSP’s external debt data cover borrowings of Philippine residents from nonresident creditors, regardless of sector, maturity, creditor type, debt instruments or currency denomination.

The central bank gathers data on external debt through reports submitted by borrowers, banks, and major foreign creditors. — Katherine K. Chan