Peso drops vs dollar on Fed meet minutes

The peso weakened against the dollar anew on Thursday as minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting this month affirmed their cautious policy outlook.

The local unit closed at PHP 58.13 per dollar on Thursday, weakening by seven centavos from its PHP 58.06 finish on Wednesday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso opened Thursday’s session weaker at PHP 58.15 against the dollar. Its intraday best was its closing level of PHP 58.13, while its weakest showing was at PHP 58.30 versus the greenback.

Dollars exchanged went down to USD 1.265 billion on Thursday from USD 1.29 billion on Wednesday.

“The peso weakened anew after the latest Fed minutes affirmed the hawkish policy guidance by various Fed officials,” a trader said in an e-mail.

As a result, the dollar generally strengthened against other currencies, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

The dollar hovered near a one-week high on Thursday after its biggest daily percentage gain this month against a basket of peers a day before as minutes of the last Fed meeting revealed a willingness to raise interest rates among some officials, Reuters reported.

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major rivals including sterling, the euro and yen, was a whisker higher at 104.93 after gaining 0.28% the day before.

Federal Reserve officials at their last policy meeting said they still had faith that price pressures would ease at least slowly in coming months, but doubts emerged about whether the current level of interest rates was high enough to guarantee that outcome and “various” officials said they’d be willing to hike borrowing costs again if inflation surged.

“Participants… noted that they continued to expect that inflation would return to 2% over the medium term,” according to the minutes of the April 30-May 1 meeting, but “the disinflation would likely take longer than previously thought.”

While the policy response for now would “involve maintaining” the Fed’s benchmark policy rate in the current 5.25%-5.5% range, “various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate,” the minutes said, employing a modifier not included in the usual set of words — like some, many, and most — used in the minutes to give a sense of how many officials voiced a particular opinion.

For Friday, the trader said the peso could rebound again ahead of the US retail sales report.

The trader sees the peso moving between PHP 57.95 and PHP 58.20 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 58.05 to PHP 58.25. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters