Peso climbs as markets await Fed policy clues

The peso strengthened on Monday to return to the PHP 56 level against the greenback as investors’ focus turned to the US Federal Reserve’s symposium this week.

The local unit closed at PHP 56.965 per dollar, rising by 10 centavos from its PHP 57.065 finish on Friday, Bankers Association of the Philippines data showed.

The peso opened Monday’s session at almost unchanged at PHP 57.05 against the dollar. Its intraday best was its closing level of PHP 56.965, while its worst showing was at PHP 57.14 against the greenback.

Dollars exchanged dropped to USD 1.48 billion on Monday from USD 2.099 billion on Friday.

“The dollar-peso traded sideways as players waited on the sidelines ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 21 to 23 for possible hints from Fed officials on their easing path,” a trader said in a phone interview.

The peso was also supported by lower global crude oil prices, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.

For Tuesday, the trader sees the peso moving between PHP 56.80 and PHP 57.20 per dollar, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to range from PHP 56.85 to PHP 57.15.

The US dollar wobbled on Monday ahead of what is likely to be an eventful week for US interest rate policy, while oil prices were subdued as risks to Russian supplies seemed to fade somewhat, Reuters reported.

The major economic event of the week will be the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome H. Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook and the central bank’s policy framework.

Markets imply around an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting on Sept. 17 and are priced for further easing by December. Wagers on more Fed easing have weighed on the dollar, which dropped 0.4% against a basket of currencies last week to last stand at 97.858.

In commodity markets, oil prices struggled as US President Donald J. Trump backed away from threats to place more restrictions on Russian oil exports, although White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said India’s purchases of Russian crude were funding Russia’s war in Ukraine and had to stop. Brent was flat at USD 65.81 a barrel, while US crude steadied at USD 62.81 per barrel. — A.M.C. Sy with Reuters