Palay production may decline due to La Niña

The anticipated La Niña weather pattern is expected to pull down the Philippines’ palay (unmilled rice) production for the rest of the year amid risks of heavy rains and intense flooding, analysts said.

In a report, Fitch Solutions’ unit BMI said the impact of La Niña on rice production in Southeast Asia “will be shaped via the precise timing of the onset of La Niña conditions (and the extent to which it overlaps with critical stages of crop development) as well as the eventual duration and severity of the event itself.”

“The likelihood of a La Niña event posing headwinds to regional rice production will increase with both the duration and severity of the event,” it added.

Latest data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) showed that there is a 66% chance of La Niña occurring from September to November and will likely persist until the first quarter.

BMI said the impact of La Niña-linked above-average rainfall on farming in Southeast Asia would depend on the severity of the weather event.

Aside from intense rainfall and flooding, BMI said there is also the risk of rain-induced waterlogging.

PAGASA earlier said that the La Niña heightens the likelihood of tropical cyclones, low-pressure areas, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and intensifies the Southwest Monsoon.

Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said he expects a drop in annual palay production this year due to La Niña.

“The number one problem is the impact of La Niña coupled with the late distribution of agricultural inputs provided by the National Government. There will be a decline of production from the 20 million MT (metric tons) last year,” he said in a text message.

In 2023, palay production reached 20.06 million MT.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) earlier trimmed its palay production estimate to 20.1 million MT for 2024 from 20.44 million MT previously.

Fermin D. Adriano, a former Agriculture undersecretary, said in a Viber message that palay production would likely drop to between 19.3 million MT and 19.5 million MT this year.

“With El Niño and then recent flooding in rice growing areas of Central Luzon, I don’t know whether DA will get 1% to 2% growth rate (for agricultural production),” Mr. Adriano said in a Viber message.

The DA had set a 1-2% growth target for agricultural production this year, taking into account the impact of the El Niño and La Niña weather events.

“The possibility of an increase in output for 2024 is bleak, given the 500,000 (MT) drop in palay harvests in the first semester, plus the potential impact of La Niña on standing crops in the coming months,” Federation of Free Farmers National Manager Raul Q. Montemayor said in a Viber message.

Mr. Montemayor said that the projected drop in palay production may be attributed to delayed planting by rice farmers. This would push back the palay harvest to the fourth quarter, he added.

PAGASA has so far logged nine tropical cyclones which have entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility this year.

Farm damage from weather disturbances was estimated at PHP 23.19 billion from January to Sept. 4, according to the DA. This includes the effects of the El Niño, shearline, Southwest Monsoon, Typhoon Aghon, Typhoon Carina, and the Severe Tropical Depression Enteng.

The estimated volume loss for rice was at 373,000 MT, during the nine-month period. The DA projects an average of 500,000 MT to 600,000 MT in rice losses every year.

“The damage reports don’t sound so bad, I’m not surprised if we hit 20 million MT (this year),” Roehlano M. Briones, a senior research fellow with the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said in a Viber message.

Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (SINAG) Executive Director Jayson H. Cainglet said that the country’s rice supply would remain sufficient given the increase in rice imports.

“Those damaged by Habagat (Southwest Monsoon) and heavy rain, farmers just need to be assisted immediately to replant,” he said in a Viber message.

“What we are worried about is the big drop in farmgate price of palay during these lean months — an indication there is a lot of rice in the market, and this would further decrease once the harvest season begins,” Mr. Cainglet added.

Philippine rice imports have totaled 3.09 million MT as of Sept. 19, data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed.

Meanwhile, BMI said above-average rainfall in the region can either be beneficial or detrimental to rice production, BMI said.

The La Niña event increases the likelihood of excess rainfall, which poses a threat to rice cultivation, BMI said.

“Land that is subject to drought or an extended period of below-average rainfall could also be more at risk of wildfires during Southeast Asia’s fire season. Conversely, low soil moisture levels accumulated during the El Niño period can be vulnerable to water logging in the event of intense rainfall,” it added.

PAGASA in its latest farm weather advisory also called on farmers to “prepare for wetter conditions.”

“Wet weather promotes fungal development and can cause damage to stored farm products, reduce the quality, viability and market price of the grains. Thus, it is advised to keep barns and crop storage rooms in good, dry, and well-ventilated condition,” the state weather service said.

BMI also noted that many agricultural producers in Southeast Asia continue to feel the impact of El Niño through “low soil moisture levels and depleted irrigation water reservoirs.”

“Moreover, several areas of Southeast Asia remained in drought conditions as of July 2024, including parts of Cambodia, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.”

The latest PAGASA bulletin showed that four provinces in Luzon, 12 provinces in the Visayas, and 10 provinces in Mindanao experienced meteorological drought; 17 provinces in Mindanao were under dry spell, and six provinces in Luzon experienced dry conditions.

However, BMI data also showed that the impact of La Niña on rice production “tends to be weaker” than the El Niño.

“We find that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events pose a downside risk to rice production in Southeast Asia, but that El Niño events tend to have a more significant impact on observed rice yield anomalies than La Niña events,” it said.

“In addition, we find that the relationship between La Niña events and regional rice production is not unidirectional, with weak events tending to support output levels and strong events posing headwinds to output.”

Certain countries in the region are also more vulnerable to La Niña than others, it added. – Adrian H. Halili and Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporters