Market turns to data for leads after volatile April

Key economic data and corporate results could help Philippine shares sustain their momentum this month after global trade concerns roiled markets in April, even dragging the local stock benchmark to a multi-year low.

The bellwether Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) ended April in the green as it rose by 1.64% or 102.80 points to close at 6,354.99 on Tuesday.

Month on month, the PSEi was also up by 2.82% or 174.27 points from its 6,180.72 finish on March 31.

The market was closed on Thursday for Labor Day.

“The market managed to eke out a gain in April despite market volatility brought about by US President Donald J. Trump’s tariffs,” AP Securities, Inc. Research Head Alfred Benjamin R. Garcia said in a Viber message.

“While we expect the same issue to play a part in driving the market this coming month, investors will also likely consider domestic factors like first quarter earnings and gross domestic product (GDP) numbers,” Mr. Garcia said. “May is historically a weak month, so that’s something that should be accounted for as well. However, our outlook for the rest of the year remain moderately bullish, underpinned by what we believe is an undeserved undervaluation of Philippine stocks.”

On April 2, which Mr. Trump dubbed as “Liberation Day” for the US, Washington announced that it will impose “reciprocal” tariffs on most of its major trading partners, including the Philippines.

The PSEi on April 7 plummeted to 5,822.85, its worst finish in over two-and-a-half years or since it closed at 5,783.15 on Oct. 3, 2022, as Mr. Trump doubled down on his directive, sparking trade war fears.

However, Mr. Trump suspended the higher levies for 90 days starting April 9, instead implementing a blanket 10% tariff until July. Countries are now negotiating trade deals with the US.

DragonFi Securities, Inc. Equity Research Analyst Jarrod Leighton M. Tin said in a Viber message that easing trade concerns allowed the PSEi to reverse the losses seen early last month.

“The market was further buoyed by a 25-basis-point rate cut and encouraging first-quarter 2025 earnings from key index heavyweights, contributing to a strong monthly close,” Mr. Tin said. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on April 10 resumed its easing cycle after an unexpected pause in February, bringing the policy rate to 5.50%.

“Looking ahead to May, investors will be closely watching for continued progress in global trade de-escalation. Trade negotiations between the Philippines and the US will also be in focus. A successful push for lower tariffs could provide a significant lift to market sentiment,” he added.

For this month, the PSEi may continue to trade between 6,100 to 6,500 with an upside bias, Unicapital Securities, Inc. Research Head Wendy B. Estacio-Cruz said in a Viber message. “Some catalysts that we see are April inflation rate and first quarter GDP growth rate.”

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release April inflation data on May 6 and first quarter GDP data on May 8. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave