Gov’t sees poverty incidence falling to as low as 8% by 2028

The Philippine government is confident it can bring down the poverty rate to single-digit levels by 2028.

“While we lowered our growth targets, we remain optimistic about reducing poverty rates to single-digit levels by 2028,” the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said in the midterm update of the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028.

Under the updated PDP, the government now aims to reduce the poverty incidence rate to 10-11% by 2027 and 8-9% by 2028. President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s term will end in June 2028.

The poverty incidence target stood at 12-13% for 2025.

“Poverty incidence continues to fall, and we are intensifying efforts to ensure that the benefits of economic growth reach all regions and communities,” Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed poverty incidence among the population fell to 15.5% in 2023 from the 18.1% estimate in 2021. This translated to 17.54 million poor Filipinos, 12.26% down from 19.99 million in 2021. This exceeded the 2023 poverty rate target of 16-16.4%.

“This indicates that nearly 2.4 million Filipinos were lifted out of poverty. Encouragingly, income growth among the poorer half of the population outpaced that of the wealthier half — signaling meaningful progress toward making economic growth more inclusive,” DEPDev said in the report.

The government has recalibrated the development plan at the midpoint of Mr. Marcos’ term, reflecting emerging domestic and global challenges. 

Under the updated PDP, the government is aiming for 5.5-6.5% economic growth this year. It also narrowed the gross domestic product (GDP) target band to 6-7% from 2026 to 2028.

The PDP previously set a 6.5-8% GDP growth target until 2028.

“While slower economic growth typically poses a challenge to reducing poverty, the recent achievement provides a strong rationale for retaining current poverty targets,” DEPDev said.

With sustained focus on key priorities, such as health and food security, DEPDev expects the impact of growth to be more inclusive and pro-poor, supporting the attainment of poverty targets.

“Furthermore, we will enhance the efficiency of social assistance programs by developing a dynamic social registry and refining our targeting protocols. To further empower beneficiaries of ayuda programs, we will link them to initiatives on financial literacy and employment facilitation, enabling them to build resilience and better withstand future shocks,” it said.

UMIC status

Meanwhile, DEPDev said the Philippines is poised to achieve its upper middle-income country (UMIC) status in the “near term.”

“Achieving upper middle-income status is no longer a distant aspiration — it is now within reach,” Mr. Balisacan said.

Under the updated PDP, the government is targeting gross national income (GNI) per capita to reach $4,814-$4,920 this year and $5,124-$5,210 in 2026.

The government aims to have a GNI per capita of $5,452-$5,589 in 2027, and $5,882-$6,081 in 2028.

The World Bank’s latest country income classification released in July showed the Philippines remained a lower middle-income country even as it posted a record-high GNI per capita of $4,470.

The World Bank classifies a country as lower middle income if the GNI per capita level is between $1,136 and $4,495. A country has to have a GNI per capita of $4,496-$13,935 to be classified as upper middle income. — ARAI