Dollar firm before US CPI; yen to face crucial test

TOKYO — The dollar consolidated on Wednesday ahead of a key inflation report later in the day, while the yen remained a whisker away from what markets believe to be the line in the sand for Japanese authorities to intervene.

The kiwi, meanwhile, briefly jumped to a three-week high after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates on hold, as expected, but warned of persistent inflation.

The main market focus on Wednesday is US consumer price index (CPI) for March, which traders have been eagerly awaiting for hints on the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

The inflation data follow a strong jobs report last Friday that blew past forecasts, raising questions on how soon and how much the central bank will cut rates this year.

Futures traders reduced bets to the lowest level since October, around 60 basis points in rate cuts this year, LSEG data showed on Monday, amid evidence of continued strength in the US economy.

Ahead of the data, US interest rate futures set the odds of the first cut occurring in June at about 60%, up from 51% on Monday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, although the possibility of a hold has bumped up to 40%.

A solid inflation number could lead markets to price out a June cut, which could propel the dollar sharply higher, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“A strong core CPI of 0.3% (month to month) or above will likely break the case for a June rate cut because there are two more CPI readings ahead of the meeting which are likely not sufficient to show a pattern of slowing inflation.”

Even if the data comes in below expectations, the dollar may only dip modestly, with June bets likely to be little changed as hurdles remain, she said.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, held firm at 104.12.

On the yen, Kong added that Wednesday’s CPI data will be “a big test for Japanese authorities.”

No fresh warnings were issued as the yen remained close to its 34-year low versus the dollar ahead of the data.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, however, brushed aside market speculation that the yen’s sharp falls could force the central bank to raise interest rates.

The Japanese currency was mostly flat at 151.785 per dollar.

Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the cash rate steady at 5.5% on Wednesday, as it reiterated that its previous rate hikes had helped slow the economy and constrain price rises but inflation remained above its target.

The kiwi climbed as high as USD 0.60775 versus the US dollar, its strongest since March 21, and was last up 025% at USD 0.6076.

The Australian dollar slipped 0.08% to USD 0.662.

The offshore yuan edged up to a little over a two-week high against the dollar of 7.2356 as US Treasury yields eased.

It was last at 7.2388 per dollar, with traders also eyeing China inflation and trade data due later this week.

The euro was steady at USD 1.0855, as the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday fast approaches, while sterling held flat at USD 1.2680.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last rose 0.28% to USD 69,332.47. — Reuters