Banks’ bad loan ratio up in January

Philippine banks’ asset quality worsened as the industry’s gross nonperforming loan (NPL) ratio rose in January, according to data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Preliminary data from the central bank showed the bad loan ratio rose to 3.38% in January from 3.27% in December. This was the highest in two months or since the 3.54% in November.

However, this was lower than 3.44% in the same month in 2024.

Data from the central bank showed the amount of soured loans went up by 2.5% to PHP 512.83 billion in January from PHP 500.43 billion a month earlier.

Year on year, bad loans rose by 11.3% from PHP 460.76 billion.

Loans are considered nonperforming once they remain unpaid for at least 90 days after the due date. These are deemed as risk assets since borrowers are unlikely to pay.

The total loan portfolio of the banking system stood at PHP 15.18 trillion as of end-January, down by 1% from PHP 15.32 trillion at end-December. Year on year, it jumped by 13.4% from PHP 13.38 trillion a year ago. 

Past due loans increased by 4.6% month on month to PHP 633.07 billion from PHP 605.22 billion. It likewise climbed by 10.8% from PHP 571.56 billion a year earlier.

This brought the past due ratio to 4.17%, higher than 3.95% in December but lower than 4.27% a year ago.

Meanwhile, restructured loans inched up by 0.3% to PHP 311.22 billion in January from PHP 310.44 billion in December. It rose by 3.1% from PHP 302 billion in January 2024. 

Restructured loans accounted for 2.05% of the industry’s total loan portfolio, a tad above the 2.03% in the month prior but lower than 2.26% in January 2024.

Banks’ loan loss reserves amounted to PHP 488.48 billion, up by 1.6% from PHP 480.64 billion in December and by 5.7% from PHP 462.12 billion a year ago.

This brought the January loan loss reserve ratio to 3.22% from 3.14% in December and 3.45% in the same month in 2024.

Lenders’ NPL coverage ratio, which gauges the allowance for potential losses due to bad loans, slipped to 95.25% in January from 96.04% in December and 100.29% in 2023.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said the uptick in the NPL ratio reflects the continued growth in bank loans.

Latest data from the BSP showed bank lending jumped by 12.8% to P13.02 trillion in January, its fastest pace in over two years.

“The higher NPL in January may be reflective of higher loan demand during the holiday season up until the start of 2025 but I don’t think this is a cause for concern on liquidity,” Reinielle Matt M. Erece, economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, Inc., said.

“Slow economic growth that we saw in the last quarter may also be a cause of struggle in the repayment of these loans due to slow earnings growth,” he added.

The central bank’s rate-cutting cycle in the latter half of the year also bolstered demand for loans, Mr. Ricafort said.

The BSP began its easing cycle in August last year and slashed borrowing costs for three straight meetings, reducing the key rate by a total of 75 basis points (bps) by end-2024.

“The slight monthly pickup on NPL ratio may have to do with the seasonal slowdown in sales, earnings, and other business activities upon crossing the new year from the Christmas holiday season that is considered one of highest in sales for many businesses,” he added.

For the coming months, Mr. Ricafort said the recent cut in banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) could infuse liquidity into the financial system and boost banks’ loans and investments.

Effective March 28, the BSP will cut the RRR of universal and commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 200 bps to 5% from 7%.

It will also reduce the RRR for digital banks by 150 bps to 2.5%, while the ratio for thrift lenders will be lowered by 100 bps to 0%.

Rural and cooperative banks’ RRR has been zero since October, the last time the BSP cut the reserve requirements.

“We expect NPLs to improve in the remaining months of the year as interest rates go down and as faster economic growth supports higher incomes for consumers and businesses alike, helping them meet their obligations,” Mr. Erece added. — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson