The Gist
News and Features
Global Philippines Fine Living
Insights
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
Webinars
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
Downloads
Buildings in the Makati Central Business District
Economic Updates
Monthly Recap: BSP to outpace the Fed in rate cuts 
DOWNLOAD
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Quarterly Economic Growth Release: 5.4% Q12025
DOWNLOAD
investment-ss-3
Economic Updates
Policy rate views: Uncertainty stalls cuts
DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
Metrobank.com.ph Contact Us
Follow us on our platforms.

How may we help you?

TOP SEARCHES
  • Where to put my investments
  • Reports about the pandemic and economy
  • Metrobank
  • Webinars
  • Economy
TRENDING ARTICLES
  • Investing for Beginners: Following your PATH
  • On government debt thresholds: How much is too much?
  • Philippines Stock Market Outlook for 2022
  • No Relief from Deficit Spending Yet

Login

Access Exclusive Content
Login to Wealth Manager
Visit us at metrobank.com.ph Contact Us
Access Exclusive Content Login to Wealth Manager
Search
The Gist
News and Features
Global Philippines Fine Living
Insights
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
Economy Stocks Bonds Currencies
THE BASICS
Investment Tips Explainers Retirement
Webinars
2024 Mid-Year Economi Briefing, economic growth in the Philippines
2024 Mid-Year Economic Briefing: Navigating the Easing Cycle
June 21, 2024
Investing with Love
Investing with Love: A Mother’s Guide to Putting Money to Work
May 15, 2024
retirement-ss-3
Investor Series: An Introduction to Estate Planning
September 1, 2023
View All Webinars
Downloads
Buildings in the Makati Central Business District
Economic Updates
Monthly Recap: BSP to outpace the Fed in rate cuts 
May 29, 2025 DOWNLOAD
economy-ss-9
Economic Updates
Quarterly Economic Growth Release: 5.4% Q12025
May 8, 2025 DOWNLOAD
investment-ss-3
Economic Updates
Policy rate views: Uncertainty stalls cuts
May 8, 2025 DOWNLOAD
View all Reports
BusinessWorld 4 MIN READ

AMRO trims PHL growth forecasts

July 17, 2024By BusinessWorld
Related Articles
Oil price shocks could fuel inflation anew October 16, 2024 External debt up 10% as of end-2024 March 17, 2025 Philippine stock market seen to bounce back this year February 27, 2025

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) trimmed its Philippine economic growth forecast for this year and in 2025, amid slowing external demand.

In its latest update, AMRO sees the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 6.1% this year, slightly lower than the 6.3% in the April report.

Despite the downgrade, this is still faster than the 5.5% GDP growth in 2023, and within the government’s 6-7% target for this year.

AMRO'S ASEAN+3 GDP growth forecasts

“We have shaved down the growth for not just the Philippines but many of the countries in the region. The recovery in the external sector was weaker than expected,” AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor said in a virtual briefing on Tuesday.

“We may revise it up in the second half if the data show that the economy becomes more strongly,” Mr. Khor said.

AMRO also downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 6.3% from 6.5% in the previous report. This is within the government’s 6.5-7.5% goal for next year.

Mr. Khor said Philippine growth has been weakened by gaps in infrastructure.

“I think the government is very conscious of that and is trying to fill the gap. Unfortunately, fiscal space has been used up to some extent during the pandemic,” he said.

The Philippine government aims to spend PHP 1.47 trillion on infrastructure this year. The Marcos administration has committed to maintaining high investments in infrastructure or around 5-6% of GDP from 2024 to 2025.

To complement domestic savings, the Philippines still has “a mo00derate business space” to attract more foreign investments. However, its economy remains one of the most restrictive in the region, Mr. Khor said.

“We think the policy measures by the government will continue to attract more investment, and also with the improvement in infrastructure gap, will help to lift the (Philippines’) growth potential,” he said.

Also, AMRO lowered its inflation forecast for the Philippines to 3.3% for this year from 3.6% in the April report. It raised its inflation projection to 3.1% for 2025 from 2.9% previously.

AMRO said the BSP may maintain a tight monetary policy until a downward trend in inflation is sustained.

Despite this, the Philippines is still projected to be the second-fastest growing economy among Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members this year, behind only Vietnam (6.3%).

Philippine growth is expected to be ahead of Cambodia (5.6%), Indonesia (5.2%), Malaysia (4.7%), Laos (4.5%), Brunei (4%), Thailand (2.7%), Singapore (2.4%), and Myanmar (1.8%).

AMRO sees the ASEAN+3 region, which includes China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea, expanding by 4.4% this year and 4.3% in 2025.

The ASEAN region is projected to grow by 4.8% this year and next year.

“External trade is set to return to positive territory this year, which will supplement strong domestic consumption and the continuing recovery in tourism,” AMRO said in the report.

AMRO said the global economy is expected to continue stabilizing next year, and monetary easing is seen to resume in major economies.

The think tank lowered its inflation forecast for ASEAN+3 (excluding Laos and Myanmar) to 2.1% for this year from 2.5% previously “due to softer-than-expected food prices in several economies and lower imported inflation.”

“Higher cost pressures could emerge in 2025 as economic momentum gains traction, but these are unlikely to trigger a large spike in ASEAN+3 inflation under the baseline scenario,” it said.

AMRO said the overall balance of risks to the outlook has improved since April, but several risks such as a spike in commodity and shipping prices and tighter-than-expected US monetary policy.

Other risks include a sharp slowdown in the US and Europe, weaker growth in China, and possible adverse spillovers from the US presidential election.

“The bad news is that the region’s outlook next year could be significantly affected by the outcome of the US elections. The good news is, the region has weathered similar shocks before,” Mr. Khor said.

The US presidential elections will be held on Nov. 5.

Also, AMRO said geopolitical tensions are becoming “more pertinent” for ASEAN+3 economies.

“The threat of geoeconomic fragmentation continues to rear its head as more economies announce trade controls or protectionist measures, following recent US tariff action against China. The ongoing shifts in global trade — including longer supply chains — can exacerbate the negative impact of these trade frictions, especially for ASEAN+3 economies, which are highly integrated in global trade,” AMRO said. — Beatriz Marie D. Cruz

This article originally appeared on bworldonline.com

Read More Articles About:
Worldwide News Philippine News Rates & Bonds Equities Economy Investment Tips Fine Living

You are leaving Metrobank Wealth Insights

Please be aware that the external site policies may differ from our website Terms And Conditions and Privacy Policy. The next site will be opened in a new browser window or tab.

Cancel Proceed
Get in Touch

For inquiries, please call our Metrobank Contact Center at (02) 88-700-700 (domestic toll-free 1-800-1888-5775) or send an e-mail to customercare@metrobank.com.ph

Metrobank is regulated by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Website: https://www.bsp.gov.ph

Quick Links
The Gist Webinars Wealth Manager Explainers
Markets
Currencies Rates & Bonds Equities Economy
Wealth
Investment Tips Fine Living Retirement
Portfolio Picks
Bonds Stocks
Others
Contact Us Privacy Statement Terms of Use
© 2025 Metrobank. All rights reserved.

Read this content. Log in or sign up.

​If you are an investor with us, log in first to your Metrobank Wealth Manager account. ​

If you are not yet a client, we can help you by clicking the SIGN UP button. ​

Login Sign Up