Agriculture department expects faster farm output growth in Q1

Farm output is expected to grow faster this quarter, building on the 2% expansion posted in the same period last year, the Agriculture chief said.

“It should be a bit higher than last year, as long as there are no adverse weather conditions,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. told BusinessWorld via WhatsApp.

Mr. Laurel said improved production in poultry and crops, particularly corn and onions, is expected to support the sector’s performance during the quarter.

He added that higher output in rice and fisheries is likely to strengthen the agriculture sector’s second-quarter performance.

Mr. Laurel, however, did not specify a target as he said the Department of Agriculture (DA) is still finalizing its forecasts due to recent developments in the Middle East.

“We are recalibrating [our projections] due to the effects of the war on fuel and logistics,” he said.

The DA earlier said it expects the impact of the Iran crisis to reflect in the cost of synthetic fertilizers, which are largely petroleum-based, as well as in fuel used by farmers and fisherfolk.

Freight costs may also increase due to higher risk premiums on shipments from the Persian Gulf.

In the first quarter of 2025, farm output grew 2% year on year to PHP 438.02 billion from PHP 429.62 billion, supported by strong poultry production, which expanded 9.8%.

Crop production during the period grew 1%, while fisheries output rose 1.5%. Meanwhile, livestock production declined 2.8%, largely due to a drop in the hog population caused by the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF).

The DA said that it expects further recovery in the swine sector this year as it implements repopulation and ASF vaccination programs. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel, Reporter