August 2023 inflation: Materializing upside risks

Headline inflation steered to the upside at 5.3% in August 2023 versus 4.7% previously, and after consistent downtrend in the previous months, driven primarily by the uptick in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, restaurants and accommodation services, and transport.

This month’s inflation print came in higher than Research’s anticipated print, which indicates that the upside risks projected from increasing global rice prices and transportation fare hikes have already fed into headline inflation.

Given this recent development, Research reverts its FY average inflation estimate back to 6.0% (from 5.6%) for 2023 but maintains its 4.6% forecast for 2024.

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Inflation Report

August 2023 Inflation steered upward

Four commodity groups recorded lower year-on-year inflation, five (5) posted faster inflation, and four recorded stable inflation.

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