Economy2 MIN READ
Metrobank US-Iran Risk Index: Reaching a deal
Risk levels in financial markets dropped, as the US and Iran reach a peace deal.
June 16, 2026 by Metrobank Research, Investment Counselor Department
Share this article:
Metrobank’s US-Iran Risk Index settled at 115.4 on June 10, down by 3.8% from 120.0 the prior trading day. This is also the risk index’s lowest level since March.
The US and Iran reached an initial deal to end the war on Sunday, according to Al Jazeera. The deal—which includes an end to military hostilities and the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for international oil shipments—is set to be signed on Friday, the news agency reported.
Global oil prices dropped following news of the deal, as concerns over oil supply eased. Brent crude futures settled lower at USD 83 per barrel on Monday, UK trading, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Moreover, the US dollar weakened, with flows moving away from the safe-haven currency as market players turned more risk-on. The dollar-peso exchange rate closed below the 61-level for the first time in several weeks on Monday, Philippine trading. The 10-year US Treasury yield also moved lower during US trading on lower inflation expectations and a less hawkish outlook for the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
While market players saw greater relief with the deal, some risks remain. Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that they will keep troops in Lebanon despite the end to military hostilities, according to Al Jazeera. Moreover, the US and Iran will still engage in nuclear negotiations in the coming weeks. US President Donald Trump said the US may resume military attacks if talks turn sour, according to CNN.
Though oil prices have softened in the past few days, Metrobank still sees full-year inflation in the Philippines exceeding the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s target this year, which will place upward pressure on Philippine bond yields.
Moreover, Metrobank expects the BSP to remain hawkish this year. Finally, Metrobank forecasts the dollar-peso exchange rate to stay elevated, as corporate demand for the dollar picks up in the coming months.
Metrobank’s US-Iran Risk Index measures the amount of risk that the ongoing conflict presents to financial markets. It considers the general risk sentiment of investors and inflationary pressure brought by the conflict. A value of 100 denotes a normal level of risk based on market levels prior to the conflict’s escalation, while values greater than 100 imply increasing levels of risk.
What now?
What now?
Category
Local Fixed Income
Outlook
Neutral to Slightly Bullish
Strategy
Continue to stay defensive within an average duration of 2 to 5 years, as foreign exchange-driven volatility, upcoming bond supply, and potentially more BSP rate hikes may keep the yield curve elevated. Local bond yields, particularly in the belly, have rallied from 2018-2019 to 2023 levels. While the US-Iran agreement is welcome news, the situation remains vulnerable. Market players may use this rally as an opportunity to de-risk and exit peso government securities, which may put upward pressure on yields.
Category
Local Equities
Outlook
Slightly Bullish
Strategy
Stay defensive but selective after recent global positive news between US-Iran and a stronger peso. Continue to favor banks and high-quality names in the utilities and services sectors that may benefit from strengthening macroeconomic confidence and possibly more accommodative BSP policy path. Stay nimble. Pullbacks may be viewed as attractive opportunities to rebuild positions.
Category
Global Fixed Income
Outlook
Neutral with Bullish Tilt
Strategy
Positioning may remain selective in credits, with an emphasis on relative value opportunities, particularly among recent laggards that may have room to catch up. Given ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, it may be advisable to stick to shorter durations (up to 5 years).
Category
Global Equities
Outlook
Slightly Bullish
Strategy
Global equities’ performance remains uneven across different regions. Maintain a prudent allocation by focusing on sectors with stable earnings and attractive yields, while remaining selective in adding exposure to fundamentally strong growth companies amid ongoing market uncertainty.
Category
USD/PHP
Outlook
Neutral to Mildly Bearish
Strategy
Expect early-week pressure on the US dollar following news of the US-Iran peace deal, with positioning likely to adjust ahead of Friday’s signing. Favor selling rallies toward 60.80-61.00 and buying selectively on dips near 60.20-60.35. While corporate demand may help cushion downside, price action remains biased toward the lower end.
Category
G10 Currencies / US Dollar
Outlook
Slightly Bullish
Strategy
Easing geopolitical tensions following the US–Iran peace deal has reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar and supported risk sentiment. Lower oil prices also helped, particularly for energy-sensitive economies, allowing G10 currencies to recover modestly. However, an upside for G10 currencies remains measured, given that strong US macroeconomic data and a still hawkish Fed provide an underlying floor for USD. Overall, expect a gradual and tactical push higher in G10 currencies, with gains likely to be corrective and capped near key resistance levels.
Category
Gold
Outlook
Neutral to Slightly Bearish
Strategy
The development on the US-Iran peace deal has led to a broad rally across assets. Gold and metals rallied to near-term resistances. Although, the upside may remain capped as inflation concerns persist and the situation in the Middle East remains volatile. Market players are also likely to be sidelined ahead of the June Fed meeting as investors wait for clearer monetary policy path signals.
As the tensions in the Middle East ease, Metrobank will only publish its US-Iran Index as the need arises. For more, economic and investment insights explore our analysis and wealthy living pages. If you are already a client, you may also reach out to your Wealth Specialist.
(Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)
Read More Articles About: