Stock Market Weekly: A pall of uncertainty

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) regained momentum, climbing 1.26% week-on-week (w/w) to 6,465.12 (+80.54 points), after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut the policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% (prev. 4.50%). The expectations of a rate cut resulted in early bargain hunting, which sustained buying interest through the week. Moreover, full year 2025 earnings releases from index constituents were mostly in line with consensus, providing additional support to sentiment.

This week, we expect the market to trade sideways with a slight downside bias as risk appetite could turn cautious. This follows US President Donald Trump’s decisions to raise the US global import tariff to 15% (from the previously announced 10%), under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, which allows the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days.

The tariff adjustment is in response to the Supreme Court ruling that his reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unconstitutional. Investors are also likely to weigh Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona Jr.’s remarks, noting monetary policy now has limited impact on economic growth.

With the lack of major data releases, the focus will remain on full-year earnings releases this week. Meanwhile, in the MSCI Philippines Small Cap Index, Apex Mining Company, Inc. (APX) and Maynilad Water Services, Inc. (MYNLD) are set to be added after the market close on February 27, 2026, effective March 2, 2026.

Resistance: 6,550 / 6,500

Support: 6,400 / 6,350

The PSEi rose 1.26% w/w, closing at 6,465.12 (+80.54 points), and is currently trading above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages (MA). The price action is also forming a cup and handle, which indicates bullish momentum, while developing strong support along the 20-day MA. The index appears ready to re-test its strong resistance at the 6,500 level and may be poised for a potential breakout.

RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 8.40

Following its block sale, RCR’s stock price had a major decline, though it was able to increase its free float to 44.18%, enhancing share liquidity and improving accessibility for larger institutional investors. Management has reiterated its intention to infuse additional assets within the year and has indicated readiness to increase dividend distributions.

Accumulating on support at PHP 7.50 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 8.25 and set a stop loss limit at around PHP 7.10.

Megaworld Corp. (MEG) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 2.80

Megaworld Corporation (MEG) is expanding its MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibitions) segment, creating additional avenues for long-term growth across its township, hospitality, and commercial ecosystems. The expansion also positions MEG to maximize the recently updated REIT framework, which allows a broader range of cash-generating assets beyond traditional office and residential properties.

Accumulating on support at the 20-day MA around PHP 2.16–2.17 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 2.48 and set a stop loss limit at around PHP 1.94.

AREIT, Inc. | BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 43.70

For AREIT, the revised framework is expected to be positive, as its strong sponsor pipeline and robust governance position the company to benefit from a diversified pool of assets sourced from the Ayala Group of companies, such as Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) and ACEN Corp. (ACEN).

Accumulating on pullbacks at the 50-day MA around PHP 42.90 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 47.20 and set a stop loss limit at around PHP 40.75.