Last week, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) dipped 3.38% week-on-week (w/w) to close at 5,629.03 (-196.94 points). The bourse traded lower throughout the week, pressured by rising global bond yields.
The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2002, to 5.28%, as elevated energy prices continued to fuel inflation concerns. On the domestic front, sentiment was further weighed down by expectations of a more hawkish policy environment, with investors increasingly pricing in two additional 25-basis-point (bp) rate hikes, which would bring Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy rate to 5.50%.
This week, we expect the market to trade with a slight upward bias as investors price in positive developments in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the U.S. and Iran held diplomatic talks, and US President Donald Trump said the conflict could end soon, potentially easing pressure on global oil prices.
Locally, investors will focus on unemployment and inflation data, which are expected to remain elevated. Consensus expects inflation to accelerate to 6.4% in Sep 2026 from 6.1% in Aug, reinforcing expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy stance. However, a softer-than-expected print could help ease risk-off sentiment and spur bargain hunting.
Resistance: 5,750 / 5,800
Support: 5,580 / 5,530
The PSEi declined by 3.38% w/w to 5,629.03 (-196.94 points) as the index reached a new year-to-date (YTD) low. It is currently trading below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs), indicating that the broader trend remains bearish.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators also continue to reflect weakness, with the MACD remaining below the signal line. However, the RSI has already reached oversold territory, signaling the potential for a near-term technical rebound.
Accumulating on a breakout above the 5,750 level is advisable to confirm a bullish reversal.
Atlas Consolidated Mining and Development Corp. (AT) | BUY ON SUPPORT | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 46.00
Copper prices continue to ease from their recent record highs near USD14,900/ton (t), as rising US 10-year Treasury yields strengthened the US dollar, increasing the cost of dollar-denominated copper for overseas consumers and dampening near-term demand expectations.
Despite the recent pullback, we view the weakness as an opportunity to accumulate copper-related names such as AT. Watch for a potential entry near the PHP17.10 support level to accumulate AT. Take profits at the technical target of PHP18.81 and set a stop loss at PHP 16.25.
Century Pacific Food, Inc. (CNPF) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 39.00
The Philippine market is navigating a challenging environment amid a confluence of external and domestic headwinds. In this environment, we favor defensive names with resilient demand profiles and healthy balance sheets, attributes that CNPF possesses.
CNPF's diversified portfolio of branded staples, spanning tuna, canned meat, dairy, and coconut products, underpins resilient demand across economic cycles. Accumulate CNPF once it breaks above PHP33.69 to confirm a bullish reversal. For short-term traders, take profit around PHP 37.06 and set a stop-loss limit at PHP 32.01.
Apex Mining Company, Inc. (APX) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 23.00
We reiterate our call on APX as Maco Mine reserves support 3,000 tons per day (tpd) through 2034, with plant upgrades lifting capacity to 3,500 tpd and continued exploration supporting reserve growth.
Meanwhile, bullion is at a seven-week low, down 7% in Sep 2026 on Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and firmer US 10-year yields. Given APX's leverage to realized gold prices and a weaker peso, this creates a potential entry opportunity, subject to technical confirmation. We would wait for a breakout before entering.
Accumulate APX on breakout at the 20-day MA around PHP 17.50. Take profits at the technical target of PHP 19.25 and set a stop loss at PHP 16.50.
