The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) managed to eke out modest gains last week, closing at 6,022.24 (+0.42% week-on-week, or by +25.11 points), as sentiment was buoyed by expectations of a rate cut at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) Monetary Board meeting on December 11, 2025.
Globally, the case for a December US Fed cut strengthened following softer US retail sales and consumer confidence slipping to a seven-month low. However, the local market remained choppy amid lingering concerns over the ongoing corruption scandal, which kept trading broadly volatile.
On a positive note, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed the Philippines’ “BBB+” long-term sovereign credit rating with a positive outlook, providing a confidence boost and helping the index finish the week in the green.
This week, we expect the market to trade with a mild upward bias as anticipated rate cuts from the BSP and US Fed draw closer. Moreover, S&P Global’s reaffirmation of the country’s “BBB+” credit rating suggests expectations for improving macro conditions, with the positive outlook hinting at a potential upgrade within 12–24 months if fiscal and economic trends continue.
Resistance: 6,300
Support: 5,800
The PSEi rose 0.42% w/w to 6,022.24, bouncing from 5,800 support levels. Price action remains slightly bearish, with the index trading below all key moving averages (MA). However, the RSI is currently near oversold territory, indicating a potential rebound. The index may retest 6,300 resistance levels or the 20-day MA, which shows a potential breakout to the 6,500 levels.
Universal Robina Corp. (URC) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 95.00
URC is currently trading close to its all-time low and remains below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), underscoring persistent bearish momentum. However, the stock has recently shown early signs of a potential reversal as it attempts to retest its 20-day MA. Accumulating on breakout at MA 20-day around PHP 68.50 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 75.35 and set a stop loss at around PHP 65.00.
SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 32.00
After breaking support at PHP 21.85, SMPH fell to a multi-year low of PHP 18.85. From oversold territory, the stock staged a rebound, gaining momentum and crossing above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A consolidation above this level would signal a likely continuation of the uptrend. Accumulating once SMPH pulls back around the PHP 21.85 support level is advisable. Take profits at PHP 25.13 and set a stop loss below PHP 20.10.
Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMS TARGET PRICE: PHP 330.00
JFC is currently trading at its 3-year low and remains below all key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day), underscoring persistent bearish momentum. However, the stock has recently shown early signs of a potential reversal as it attempts to retest its 20-day MA. Accumulating on breakout at MA 20-day around PHP 201.00 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 221.00 and set a stop loss at around PHP 190.50.
