Last week, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) slipped 0.47% week-on-week (w/w) to close at 6,061.81 (-28.79 points). The market largely traded sideways during the week amid a lack of fresh catalysts.
However, the bourse declined sharply last Friday following reports that Iran-backed Houthis struck key oil pipelines near Saudi Arabia, which led to global oil prices surging above the USD100.00/barrel (bbl) level, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reaching four-month highs of USD101.76/bbl and USD100.70/bbl, respectively. Sentiment weakened further after the peso fell to a record low of PHP62.80/USD, heightening inflation concerns.
This week, we expect the local bourse to trade sideways with a downward bias as investors monitor escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Over the weekend, reports indicated that Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended operations on its East-West pipeline following drone attacks in nearby areas amid continued Houthi advances toward the Red Sea. Moreover, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified after an Iranian cargo vessel was reportedly sunk in a series of missile strikes. On the policy front, the market will also take cues from the Fed’s interest rate decision and economic guidance later this week, with consensus expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike. Domestically, higher global oil prices are expected to translate into another round of fuel price hikes this week, with gasoline, diesel, and kerosene prices expected to rise by PHP5-6/liter, PHP4-5/liter, and PHP4-5/liter, respectively.
Resistance: 6,200/6,350
Support: 5,940/6,000
The PSEi declined by 0.47% w/w to 6,061.81 (-28.79 points) after failing to sustain its breakout above the 200-day moving average (MA). The index now remains below its key MAs, with a recent cross below the 100-day MA signaling bearish momentum. However, as the index nears support levels and the MACD is poised for a bullish crossover, the counter might be poised for a potential rebound.
Accumulating on a successful bullish reversal above the 200-day MA is advised to confirm strengthening momentum.
Puregold Price Club, Inc. (PGOLD) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 60.00
Puregold Price Club, Inc.’s (PGOLD) 1H 2026 net income rose by 10.8% year-on-year (y/y) to PHP 5.87 billion, in line with consensus and our estimates. Revenue rose 10.6% y/y to PHP 121.5 billion, driven by 6.7% consolidated same-store sales growth (SSSG). Meanwhile, management reiterated its FY2026 topline growth guidance of 5%-7% and gross margin targets of 15.5%-16.5% for Puregold stores and 21.5%- 22.5% for S&R Warehouse Clubs.
Accumulate PGOLD once it breaks above its resistance at PHP 41.34. Take profits at PHP 45.47 and set stop-loss limits below PHP 39.27.
Universal Robina Corp. (URC) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 95.00
Universal Robina Corp.’s (URC) net income increased by 2.9% y/ y to PHP 6.7 billion, ahead of consensus but below our estimates. Net sales grew by 4% y/y to PHP 89.3 billion, driven by contributions from the Branded Consumer Foods (BCF) business and Animal Nutrition and Health (ANH).
Looking ahead, volume growth will be supported by cooler rainy -season weather, which should lift demand for coffee, hot chocolate, and instant noodles, alongside seasonal demand from the holiday period.
Accumulate URC once it breaks above PHP 63.95 to confirm a break from consolidation. Take profits at PHP 70.35 and set stop-loss limits below PHP 60.75.
Maynilad Water Services, Inc. (MYNLD) | BUY | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 24.16
Maynilad Water Services, Inc.’s (MYNLD) 1H 2026 net income grew by 14% y/y to PHP 8.51 billion, in line with consensus estimates. Revenue increased by 4.1% y/y to PHP 19.11 billion, driven by higher billed volume and operational gains. We view MYNLD as well positioned to sustain its earnings momentum, supported by improving raw water security and continued operational efficiency gains.
Accumulating at current levels at PHP 18.30 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 21.00 and set a stop-loss at around PHP 16.47.
