Stock Market Weekly: Some uplift with lower oil prices and a stronger peso

WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK

The PSEi rose 1.44% week-on-week (w/w) to close at 5,761.95 (+81.60 points). Early in the week, sentiment was weighed down by continued weakness in Philippine manufacturing activity, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remaining in contraction at 49.1.

On November 3, US President Donald Trump said US military aid to Israel would end by year-end, which, alongside the Democrats’ gains in the US midterm elections, the market read as a step towards easing Middle East tensions.

This weighed on oil prices, with Brent crude falling to USD 94.62 per barrel (bbl) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declining to USD 88.12/bbl, though both remain elevated. The peso also strengthened to an intraday best of PHP 62.90/US dollar, supported by the election outcome and softer global oil prices.

These supported the market for most of the week, alongside 9M 2026 corporate earnings that were broadly in line with expectations. However, October inflation, released on November 5, came in hotter than expected at 7.8% year-on-year (y/y) (September 2026: 7.2%; October 2025: 1.7%; estimates: 7.7%), reinforcing concerns over persistent price pressures. Early resilience faded as the week ended following the overnight selloff on Wall Street, as concerns over the outlook for AI infrastructure spending weighed on US tech stocks.

The US labor market added 165k jobs in October 2026, well above the consensus estimate of 62k additions, with most of the gains coming from professional and business services (+70k), health care (+42k), transportation and warehousing (+25k), and manufacturing (+19k).

There were no material sectoral losses. Other major industries, including government, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality, were largely unchanged. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% (September 2026: 4.2%).

The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.9% (September 2026: 61.8%). Wage growth came in at 3.1% y/y in October (September 2026: 3.0%). August and September payrolls were revised up by a combined 84k, to 186k and 60k, respectively.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

We expect the local bourse to trade sideways with a slight upward bias this week, supported by lower oil prices and the stronger peso. Early in the week, investors will digest the Philippines’ 3Q 2026 GDP release of 2.1%.

Domestic pump prices are expected to fall this week, providing some relief to consumers. Investors will also take cues from US October inflation on November 10 for signals on the Fed’s rate path, alongside the remaining 9M 2026 corporate earnings releases.

However, caution persists as investors monitor developments in the Middle East for direction on oil prices, continued volatility in US tech stocks, and the risk of further tightening by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) following the hotter-than-expected October inflation.

PSEi WEEKLY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Support: 5,650

Resistance: 5,830

ANALYSIS

The PSEi increased by 1.44% w/w to close at 5,761.95 (+81.60 points) after rebounding from its near-term support level. The index has already crossed above its 20-day moving average (MA), indicating improving short-term momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to trade above the signal line, suggesting further near-term upside.

Accumulating on breakout above resistance at 5,830 is recommended to confirm bullish momentum.

STOCK CALLS FOR THE WEEK

Bloomberry Resorts Corp. (BLOOM) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 2.00

BLOOM expanded its digital gaming portfolio with the launch of OnlyFun.PH, the country’s first regulated live interactive entertainment platform integrating online gaming, livestreaming, and creator-led content.

BLOOM’s expansion into the new content format can strengthen its exposure to the more resilient online gaming segment, which has become an increasingly important growth driver amid subdued demand in the land-based casino market.

Accumulate BLOOM on a confirmed breakout above the PHP 2.05 resistance. For short-term traders, take profit at the technical target of PHP 2.26 and set a stop loss limit at PHP 1.94.

Double Dragon Corp. (DD) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 13.01

DoubleDragon Corp. (DD) through its subsidiary, Hotel 101 Global Holdings Corp., has entered the Africa market after a country-wide development agreement with Egypt’s WNTR Property & Hospitality, an affiliate of IGI Holding. Hotel101’s entry into Egypt adds another market to its growing international presence and is aligned with management’s plan to grow the brand globally.

Accumulate DD on a confirmed breakout above the PHP 11.80-11.85 resistance. For short-term traders, take profit at the technical target of PHP 13.01 and set a stop loss at PHP 11.24.

SM Prime Holdings Inc. (SMPH) | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 24.00

On October 12, 2026, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Proclamation No. 1479, declaring three completed parcels of the 360-hectare (ha) Pasay reclamation (Phases 1, 2 and 4) as alienable and disposable land, reserving them for mixed-use development and granting ownership to the Philippine Reclamation Authority (PRA).

We view the proclamation as a positive development for SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH), as it clarifies the land status of a potential new business district in the Bay Area.

Accumulate SMPH at current levels at around PHP 17.50-17.60. For short-term traders, take profit at the technical target of PHP 19.25 and set a stop loss at PHP 16.60.