The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) declined 1.03% week-on-week (w/w) to 6,072.24 (-63.11 points), weighed down by persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire. The index opened the week under heavy selling pressure as investors digested developments from the US-Iran talks in Switzerland, where both sides signaled progress toward a diplomatic resolution.
However, sentiment deteriorated after US President Donald Trump warned that the US remained prepared to launch renewed strikes on Iran, casting doubt over the durability of the ceasefire. Market volatility persisted through the middle of the week as investors remained cautious over the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Meanwhile, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices eased to USD 72.60 per barrel and USD 70.24 per barrel, respectively. Despite the decline in oil prices, the local market remained under pressure amid continued foreign fund outflows, which further dampened investor sentiment.
We expect the local bourse to trade sideways with a downward bias this week as geopolitical risks remain elevated. Renewed US strikes on Iran, following reports of attacks on commercial shipping that threaten the recently announced ceasefire, have reignited uncertainty.
Investors are also expected to continue digesting the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals, which could sustain pressure on the BSP to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance in support of the peso.
Nonetheless, the expected fuel price rollbacks estimated at PHP 0.70–1.20 per liter for diesel and PHP 0.50– 1.50 per liter for gasoline may provide some relief to inflation expectations and consumer sentiment, partially offsetting the prevailing risk-off environment.
Resistance: 6,150/6,200
Support: 5,900/5,950
The PSEi declined 1.03% w/w to 6,072.24 (-63.11 points), crossing below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs) and is now poised to break below the 20-day and 50-day MAs, indicating short-term weakness.
The index also fails to sustain its position above the 6,150 resistance zone, reinforcing a bearish bias. Meanwhile, the momentum indicator MACD is also poised to cross below the signal line, suggesting further downside momentum.
Accumulating select value stocks on slight pullbacks for more attractive entry points is advisable.
RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 8.00
RL Commercial REIT, Inc. (RCR) is expanding its retail portfolio after its board approved the acquisition of six mall assets from sponsor Robinsons Land Corp. (RLC) through a PHP 10.62 billion property-for-share swap transaction. Under the agreement, RLC will subscribe to 1,287,562,302 common shares of RCR at PHP 8.25 per share.
Accumulating on support at the 20- day MA around PHP 6.95-7.05 is advisable. Take profits at around PHP 7.65 and set a stop loss limit at around PHP 6.55.
NICKEL ASIA CORP. (NIKL) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 5.10
Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry announced plans to raise the country’s nickel mining quota to around 360 million tons in 2H 2026, up from roughly 260 million tons in 1H 2026. Nickel prices are approaching their year-to-date lows following the announcement. As a result, companies such as Nickel Asia Corp. (NIKL) are likely to track the decline in nickel prices.
For investors who are currently positioned, we recommend selling NIKL at current levels.
MANILA ELECTRIC CO. | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 650.00
The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) announced a downweight of MER in the Philippine Standard Cap Index. As a result, MER’s weight in the MSCI Philippines Standard Cap Index was projected to decrease to 5.83%.
The significant adjustment was expected to result in approximately USD 377.7 million in passive and active outflows from MER. Despite this, we viewed it as a buying opportunity to accumulate MER at a discount.
Accumulate MER near support levels around PHP 570. Set stop-limit orders below PHP 541.0 and take profits once it reaches PHP 627.0.
