The Phlippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) gained 1.91% week-on-week (w/w) to close at 6,188.03 (+115.79 points), supported by improving investor sentiment as tensions between the US and Iran continued to ease, with no fresh military escalation reported during the week.
As geopolitical risks subsided, market participants increasingly looked past the conflict and shifted their focus back to underlying market fundamentals, allowing both global and local equities to extend their recovery despite lingering uncertainties.
Meanwhile, oil prices continued to retreat, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settling at USD 72.13 and USD 68.78 per barrel, respectively, easing concerns over energy-driven inflationary pressures. Although foreign investors remained net sellers, sustained buying from domestic investors more than offset the outflows, underpinning the local market’s advance.
We expect the local bourse to trade sideways with an upward bias this week as ceasefire talks continue. Investor attention is likely to shift toward key domestic economic data, particularly the release of the Philippines’ June inflation print.
DBS expects inflation to moderate to 6.6% year-on-year (y/y) (from May’s 6.8%), supported by the sharp decline in global oil prices throughout June following the easing of geopolitical tensions, which should help contain transport costs.
While the anticipated fuel price adjustments of around PHP 1–3 per liter for diesel and approximately PHP 1 per liter for gasoline may exert some pressure on consumer sentiment, we believe the overall impact will be limited given the broader downtrend in fuel prices over the past month. A softer inflation reading could reduce the likelihood of larger policy rate hikes by the Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), providing greater support for domestic economic growth.
Resistance: 6,180/6,200
Support: 6,000/5,990
The PSEi gained 1.91% or 115.79 points w/w to close at 6,188.03. The index is currently trading above its key moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day) and appears set to break above its near-term resistance at around 6,189.32.
Momentum indicators remain constructive, with both the RSI and MACD continuing to trend higher, suggesting sustained positive momentum. A decisive break above resistance could confirm a bullish breakout and pave the way for a technical recovery.
Accumulating select value stocks on breakout is recommended to confirm bullish reversal.
Maynilad Water Services, Inc. (MYNLD) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | CONSENSUS TARGET PRICE: PHP 24.39
The review period for the August 2026 PSEi rebalancing round ended on June 30, 2026. Based on our updated projections, Maynilad Water Services, Inc. (MYNLD) has a high probability of entering the PSEi.
MYNLD has maintained its 22nd place ranking in terms of market cap, supported by strong share price performance following its initial public offering (IPO). Additionally, the company meets liquidity requirements for early entrants, ranking within the top 20% based on median daily traded value for eight months.
Accumulating MYNLD once it breaks above PHP 20.50 is advisable. Take profit around PHP 22.55 and set stop loss limits at PHP 19.48.
PUREGOLD PRICE CLUB, INC. (PGOLD) | BUY ON BREAKOUT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 60.00
PGOLD is well-positioned to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending, given its focus on essential goods, with upside from improving real incomes and easing logistics costs. The company also stands out with its best-in-class balance sheet, holding a net cash position of PHP 36.9 billion, providing flexibility to fund expansion, navigate higher interest rates, and potentially enhance shareholder returns through dividends.
We project fully year 2026 and 2027 EPS to grow by 6% and 7%, respectively, supported by steady demand across income segments, the strength of its Puregold and S&R formats, and continued advantages in scale, supplier relationships, and product mix improvement.
Accumulate PGOLD once it breaks above PHP 43.00. Take profits at PHP 47.30 and set stop loss limits below PHP 40.85.
CONVERGE ICT SOLUTIONS INC. (CNVRG) | BUY | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 20.30
Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. (CNVRG) stands as the primary candidate for index exclusion from the PSEi, based on our recent screening. Sluggish trading activity dragged down the stock’s volume-weighted average price (VWAP), pinning its full market cap rank at 33rd, the lowest among current constituents. Amid the index exclusion overhang, CNVRG has declined 35.38% YTD (as of July 1, 2026), as investors anticipate excess selling activity to push down the stock during the August 2026 PSEi rebalancing round.
Accumulating CNVRG at current levels around PHP 9.60-9.80 is advised. Take profits when CNVRG reaches PHP 11.15 and place your stop loss limit below PHP 8.9.
