The Philippine Stock Market index (PSEi) fell by 1.62% week-on-week (w/w) (-99.08 points) to close at 5,999.13. The week opened on a still cautious note as the index slipped to the 5,900 level before slightly recovering.
Investor confidence remained fragile as ceasefire efforts failed to secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the rollback in oil prices, bringing gasoline to around PHP 80/liter and diesel to PHP 120/liter, investors remained concerned that consumer spending remained subdued amid a weak and uncertain economic backdrop.
Toward the end of the week, both US and Iran announced the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, but both retracted their statements in less than 24 hours, further adding to market confusion and reinforcing a cautious investor stance.
This week, we expect the local bourse to trade sideways with a downward bias as the ongoing volatility in tanker flows remains marked by abrupt closures, military incidents, and conflicting diplomatic signals.
Outbound vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz is still significantly impaired, with the full reopening of the waterway uncertain despite ceasefire talks. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions escalated further as Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon targeting terrorist cells.
Despite Brent crude settling at USD 90.38/barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at USD 83.85/barrel, the downside may be partially capped as domestic fuel prices are expected to decline by PHP 24–26/liter for diesel and PHP 2.50–3.50/liter for gasoline.
Nonetheless, investors are likely to remain cautious as ceasefire efforts between Israel and Lebanon, alongside the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, have yet to gain traction, continuing to weigh on overall market confidence and visibility on the conflict’s resolution. With impaired volumes and escalation risks still elevated, we recommend maintaining a guarded stance while remaining agile.
Resistance: 6,100/6,200
Support: 5,850/5,900
The PSEi declined by 1.62% w/w to 5,999.13 (-99.08 points) after failing to sustain a breakout above the 100-day moving average (MA), and the pullback toward the 20-day MA signals near-term weakness. On momentum indicators, the RSI remains range-bound, reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction. Meanwhile, the MACD holding above the signal line suggests early signs of stabilization that could support a near-term recovery.
Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. (CNVRG) | BUY ON SUPPORT | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 12.76
While the two-week US-Iran ceasefire has eased near-term tail risks and sparked a global relief rally, key sources of volatility remain unresolved amid fragile negotiations and a fluid geopolitical backdrop. Converge ICT Solutions, Inc. (CNVRG) is likely to remain resilient even in a high-inflation scenario. On one hand, CNVRG has limited exposure to fuel-driven cost pressures, with utilities representing only 1.5% of full year 2025 revenues. On the other hand, demand for broadband tends to be less sensitive to inflation, supported by a predominantly postpaid subscriber base and remote setups making reliable internet a necessity.
Accumulate CNVRG at key support levels between PHP 11.20–12.00. Take profits at PHP 12.76 and set a stop loss limit at PHP 11.02.
Puregold Price Club, Inc. (PGOLD) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 49.00
We maintain a preference for defensive, consumer-facing stocks that have historically shown resilience during periods of geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation. We see Puregold Price Club, Inc. (PGOLD) as well-positioned in this scenario, supported by stable revenue streams anchored in essential consumer staples despite tighter household budgets.
The company’s Puregold-only stores and S&R stores cater to different income segments, with demand from middle- to high-income consumers tending to be more resilient to fuel-driven inflation due to lower price sensitivity. Moreover, PGOLD’s strong balance sheet and net cash position further reinforce its defensive appeal.
Accumulate PGOLD once it pulls back to PHP 40.0. Take profits at PHP 44.0 and set stop loss limits below PHP 38.0.
Manila Electric Co. (MER) | BUY ON PULLBACKS | FMSEC TARGET PRICE: PHP 650.0
MER’s power generation segment posted record core income of PHP 16.8 billion (+52% y/y), lifting its share of consolidated earnings to 33% (full year 2024: 25%), supported by higher plant availability, full-year LNG Philippines contributions, and reserve market participation.
Meanwhile, Distribution Utility (DU) volumes slipped 0.6% y/y to 53,997 GWh amid weaker demand from POGO exits and cooler weather, keeping earnings growth modest at +6.3% y/y. Retail Electricity Supply (RES) volumes grew 11% y/y to 7,510 GWh on sustained customer additions, but core earnings fell 33.1% y/y to PHP 4.2bn due to margin pressure from stiffer competition, lower spreads, and a higher mix of large contestable customers.
Accumulate MER once it retraces to its 100-day MA at PHP 593.00. Take profits at PHP 652.30 and set stop loss limits below PHP 563.30.
1. PH Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, April 23, 2026 (previous: 4.25%)
2. PH Budget Balance for March 2026 on Thursday, April 23, 2026 (previous: PHP -171.2 billion)
3. US Initial Jobless Claims as of April 18 on Thursday, April 23, 2026 (previous: 207k; estimates: 212k)
4. PH Business Confidence Index for 1Q 2026 on Friday, April 24, 2026 (previous: 29.7 points)
5. PH Consumer Confidence Index for 1Q 2026 on Friday, April 24, 2026 (previous: -22.2 points)
