Economy3 min read
Metrobank US-Iran Risk Index: Searching for clues
Financial market players look for clues on when the conflict will end.
March 25, 2026 by Metrobank Research, Investment Counselor Department
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Metrobank’s US-Iran Risk Index settled at 139.5 on March 24, 2026, 3.8% higher than the previous day.
Oil prices remain volatile, with Brent crude recently seesawing above and below the USD 100 per dollar level. Despite claims from US President Donald Trump that discussions were being held to settle the conflict, conflicting statements from Iran have kept markets on edge. The New York Times reported that the US has sent over a 15-point plan to Iran on Tuesday to end hostilities, indicating that efforts are underway to ease tensions.
Still, a lack of clarity on the direction of negotiations have left risk levels in financial markets heightened. The price of Brent crude rose on Tuesday, hitting above USD 100 per barrel. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield also rose by nearly 2 basis points as a result. The dollar, meanwhile, maintained its strength overnight on renewed safe-haven flows.
Metrobank maintains the view that oil prices will stay elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point for global oil shipments, remains blocked. Meanwhile, high inflation due to rising oil prices will likely compel central banks globally to raise their policy rates this year, including the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). While dollar strength may be challenged as a result, we still see the dollar-peso exchange rate staying elevated in the near-term as steady dollar demand weighs on a weak peso.
Metrobank’s US-Iran Risk Index measures the amount of risk that the ongoing conflict presents to financial markets. It considers the general risk sentiment of investors and inflationary pressure brought by the conflict. A value of 100 denotes a normal level of risk based on market levels prior to the conflict’s escalation, while values greater than 100 imply increasing levels of risk.
What now?
What now?
Category
Local Fixed Income
Outlook
Bearish
Strategy
Stay defensive on duration amid elevated foreign exchange volatility. Focus on liquid 2–5-year tenors and add only on pronounced yield spikes. Avoid extending duration, especially at the long end of the yield curve, until peso conditions and global risks show clear signs of stabilization.
Category
Local Equities
Outlook
Bearish
Strategy
Expect bargain hunting of cheaper names in the near term. However, gains may remain capped amid oil-price volatility and developments in the Middle East. Buy on dips and take profit during rallies.
Category
Global Fixed Income
Outlook
Bearish
Strategy
Continue to favor short-dated quality bonds up to 5 years, as inflation fears push yields upward. Expect yields to stay elevated, as geopolitical tensions keep investors cautious.
Category
Global Equities
Outlook
Neutral
Strategy
Maintain a defensive approach by prioritizing high-dividend sectors while taking advantage of volatility to accumulate select quality-growth names.
Category
USD/PHP
Outlook
Rangebound
Strategy
Buy US dollars on dips or near the 59.85-60.15 support levels, as short-term fundamentals favor a mildly firmer USD after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its policy. Still, elevated energy prices and geopolitical risk will provide demand for USD. The market is expected to trade on headlines for the lack of high-impact US and Philippine data release this week.
Category
G10 Currencies / US Dollar
Outlook
Bearish
Strategy
Major currencies EUR, GBP, and JPY see some recovery following their respective central banks’ decision to pause. However, inflation concerns driven by higher-for-longer oil prices continue to weigh on global growth prospects, weakening G10 economies dependent on energy imports while safe-haven trades favor the USD.
Category
Gold
Outlook
Bearish
Strategy
Consistently elevated oil prices have driven hotter US inflation and delayed Fed rate cut expectations, contributing to a stronger US dollar and lower gold prices. The precious metal has broken through key levels at USD 4,600 and USD 4,400, and the next key supports are expected at USD 4,100 and USD 3,600. However, our long-term view is still for gold to outperform, as global central banks diversify their reserve assets away from USD and US Treasuries.
(Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)
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