Key points 
 

• Better-than-expected exports growth as AI surge drive demand: The global AI surge is boosting demand for physical hardware and increasing orders for office and telecommunication equipment needed to support massive data volumes. As a key electronics manufacturing hub, the Philippines is capturing this demand through increased physical assembly and export orders.
• Imports growth still at double-digit levels: Weak construction activity is dampening imports growth for steel and aluminum. Nevertheless, imports remain supported by the Philippines’ role in the global tech supply chain, driving demand for semiconductors.

 What’s next
 

• Philippine exports are expected to remain resilient in the near term, supported primarily by electronic products amid sustained global demand for AI-related infrastructure. Moreover, imports are expected to continue increasing, as global commodities remain expensive amid a shift in trade dynamics because of ongoing geopolitical tensions.
•  Overall, net exports will likely be a drag on GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026. Metrobank continues to expect a wider trade gap as the imports season arrive, with a relatively weak peso expected to weigh heavily on import costs.

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