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Trade Update: Riding on the AI wave

The Philippines’ trade deficit narrowed month-on-month, driven by strong exports lifted by the surging global demand for technology products
July 30, 2026 by Metrobank Research
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Key points

  • The Philippines posted a trade deficit of USD 4.94 billion in June, up 12.3% year-on-year but lower than the USD 6.10 billion deficit recorded in May.  
  • The month-on-month improvement reflects continued support from strong global technology demand, although the year-to-date trade gap widened by 25.9% to USD 30.81 billion.

What’s next

  • Metrobank expects that net exports will exert downward pressure on GDP growth in the second quarter, with the second-quarter GDP growth data to be released on August 7, 2026.
  • Metrobank also expects a wider trade deficit in the third quarter, driven by the seasonal increase in imports as businesses build their inventories ahead of the holidays, further exacerbated by a persistently elevated USD/PHP exchange rate.
(Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)    

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TRADE UPDATE

Philippines Trade Update: Riding on the AI wave

Exports continue to grow amid ongoing AI euphoria, but the peso’s sharp depreciation remains a challenge.