Economy2 min read
Monthly Recap: The beginning of the easing cycle’s end
Sluggish growth, stable inflation, and a pause in the US Fed’s easing were January’s highlights
February 6, 2026 by Metrobank
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Here are the key economic events in January 2026 and what to look out for.
Key points
- ●Philippine Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed even further in Q4 2025 to 3.0%, its lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, bringing full-year GDP in 2025 to 4.4%.
- ●Inflation in January settled at 2.0%, starting the year off within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s target.
- ●The US Federal Reserve paused its easing cycle during its January meeting, as US economic growth showed some resilience.
What now?
- ●With the Philippines’ economic rebound likely to occur in the latter half of the year, Metrobank revised the full-year GDP growth forecast for 2026 downward to 5.2%.
- ●We also still expect a cumulative 50 bps of rate cuts from the BSP to support a slowing economy.
(Disclaimer: This is general investment information only and does not constitute an offer or guarantee, with all investment decisions made at your own risk. The bank takes no responsibility for any potential losses.)
Economic Updates
January Economic Update: Growth slows, prices rise
Slow growth and within-target inflation may prompt further BSP easing.
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