It is just the start of the year, and eyes are turned to a geopolitical flashpoint.
The US moved to strike Venezuela and capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, presenting modest asset-price risks shaped by possible sanctions and diplomatic fallout.
Venezuela’s large oil reserves hold long-term strategic importance, though its current production remains low to alter oil market dynamics. While global criticism adds uncertainty, unlocking Venezuelan oil could improve refining efficiency and bolster US influence in heavy crude supply.
Over the weekend, US forces carried out a major operation in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, detaining and transferring Maduro and his wife to the US for prosecution over alleged corruption and drug trafficking.
This is a turning point in US President Donald Trump’s years-long effort to pressure Maduro’s government—from filing of charges in 2020 to deploying troops in late 2025.
Following the strike, Trump announced a broader plan beyond drug enforcement, including US intentions to temporarily administer Venezuela, rebuild its oil infrastructure, and allow American companies access its reserves.
Source: 2025 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Annual Statistical Bulletin
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, and China is its biggest oil export destination. Nevertheless, Venezuela’s share to global oil exports is limited, cushioning the immediate impact on crude prices.
Financial markets were mixed. US and emerging market (EM) equity futures rose, helped by expectations of lower oil prices benefiting major importers.
However, volatility (VIX) climbed. Safe-haven assets such as the dollar (DXY), gold, and silver strengthened. Crude oil slipped on expectations of a global surplus in 2026.
Gold and silver are positive on safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, oil faces a near-term downside, as higher supply expectations weigh down on prices.
In the medium to long term, the outlook on the energy sector is positive amid increased investments on oil infrastructure. Defense-related industrials may outperform on higher spending expectations.
While a generally positive view is maintained, risks include potential retaliation from nations such as China through sanctions, diplomatic expulsions, or military posturing due to the country’s reliance on Venezuelan oil.
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Meanwhile, Trump’s unilateral strike has sparked debate over the bypassing of US Congressional approval and potential violations of constitutional and United Nations (UN) norms.
ANNA DOMINIQUE CUDIA, MBA, CSS, is the Head of Markets Research at Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group, spearheading the generation and presentation of financial markets insights to clients. She used to be with Metrobank’s Investor Relations, where she brought in international awards and took part in various multi-billion peso and dollar capital raising activities. She holds a Master of Business Administration (Finance) degree, with distinction, from the University of London, and industry certifications in finance. She is a naturally curious person and likes to travel here and abroad.
GREGORY ISAK PIENCENAVES, is a Markets Research Analyst at Metrobank’s Trust Banking Group, covering local and global macroeconomic research. He graduated from the Ateneo de Manila University with a Bachelor of Arts in Management Economics, specializing in Financial Economics. Outside of work, he enjoys music and attends live gigs around Metro Manila when possible.
