<p><strong>GLOBAL: US President Donald Trump stated that there are no ongoing or scheduled talks with Iran. While he said that the Strait of Hormuz is open, Iran said that the strait is still shut.</strong></p>

<p><strong>Market impact:</strong> Oil climbed to a three-week high, as hopes for a US-Iran peace deal eased, while equities declined amid a technology-led selloff and rising bond yields.</p>

<p><strong>In the near term, formal negotiations may be unlikely. Backchannel mediation through countries like Qatar and Oman will carry the weight of de-escalation efforts.</strong></p>

<p><strong>LOCAL: The Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department projects inflation to range 6.4-7.3% in the third quarter and 5.9-7.3% in the fourth quarter amid supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.</strong></p>

<p><strong>Market impact: </strong>The PSEi edged higher on late bargain hunting, while the peso fell to a three-week low as hopes for a peace deal faded.</p>

<p><strong>Metrobank expects inflation to remain elevated, driven by upside risks from the Middle East conflict and a potential super El Niño.</strong></p>