Trump tariff grenade threatens market calm

Jan 31 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

A tumultuous week rounds off with investors in Asia taking their cue from more US ‘Big Tech’ earnings, digesting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance from earlier in the week, but bracing for US tariff-related volatility.

The global macro backdrop is broadly supportive, after the European Central Bank‘s rate cut and indication of more to come, the Bank of Canada‘s cut earlier this week, and expectations the Bank of England will ease next week.

But just before the Wall Street close on Thursday President Donald Trump said the US could slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Trump had said Saturday would be tariff decision day – could China be targeted too?

On the corporate front, Apple shares were under pressure in volatile after-hours trading on Thursday after the company announced its latest results. The direction they eventually take could give Asian markets a cue on Friday.

It’s been a mixed bag for the ‘Magnificent 7’ this week. Nvidia shares got hammered on Monday by the DeepSeek news, shares in Microsoft fell sharply on Thursday after the firm’s results, while shares in Tesla and Meta rose in the wake of their earnings releases.

Another plank of the US tech story took an Asian twist on Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Japan’s Softbank is in talks to invest USD 40 billion in OpenAI, more than had previously been mooted.

Markets in China are closed on Friday for the Chinese New Year holidays, and markets in South Korea and Taiwan are closed too. Liquidity across Asia will be lighter than normal.

Japanese markets will be more active though. After the Bank of Japan last week raised rates to a 17-year high of 0.5% and upped its inflation forecast, domestic assets will be sensitive to the latest retail sales, industrial production, unemployment and Tokyo inflation data on Friday.

In general, the mood music across markets is pretty upbeat, especially bearing in mind how discordant it was after the Deepseek-fueled turmoil on Monday.

The S&P 500 is only down 0.5% on the week and the Nasdaq is off 1.3% – hardly disastrous moves given the nervousness on Monday that a much more severe correction was on the cards. Indeed, the equal-weighted Nasdaq is in the green.

The global picture is even brighter. The MSCI World index goes into Friday flat on the week and hovering around its all-time high, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan is also steady, while euro and UK stocks are roaring to record highs.

Monday’s turmoil and rebound is reminiscent of the yen volatility shock from last August – fears of a yen carry trade unwind slammed stock markets on Aug. 5, yet they recovered within days. Many haven’t looked back since.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:

– Japan retail sales, industrial production, Tokyo CPI

– Australia producer price inflation (Q4)

– Thailand trade (December)

(By Jamie McGeever
Editing by Deepa Babington)