Agricultural output slumps in third quarter

The Philippines’ agricultural production plunged by 3.7% in the third quarter, the steepest decline in nearly four years, the statistics authority said on Wednesday.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed the value of production in agriculture and fisheries at constant 2018 prices fell by 3.7% to PHP 397.43 billion in the July-to-September period. This was worse than the 0.2% decline in the same period a year ago.

This was also the biggest drop in farm output since the 3.8% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020.

In the first nine months, agricultural output shrank by 2.2%, a reversal of the 0.2% growth a year prior.

“This was attributed to the reductions in the values of crops, livestock and fisheries production,” the PSA said.

The Department of Agriculture (DA) in a statement said the lower farm production was due to adverse weather and the lingering impact of African Swine Fever (ASF).

Broken down, crops production slid by 5.1% in the quarter ending-September, worsening from the 0.2% drop a year earlier. Crops accounted for more than half or 53.2% of the total farm output.

In the January-September period, the value of production in crops slid by 4.6%, reversing the 0.9% increase a year earlier.

“Undeniably, the combined effects of El Niño and La Niña weighed down palay production, a major contributor to the crop sector, which accounts for more than half of the value of agricultural and fisheries output,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said.

Palay (unmilled rice) production primarily contributed to this decline, plunging by 12.3% in the third quarter.

PSA data showed sugarcane plummeted by 83.8% during the July-to-September period. Lower output was also seen in mango (-11.2%), ampalaya (-5.6%), rubber (-4.6%), cassava (-3.9%), banana (-1.1%), pineapple (-0.4%), and coconut (-0.1%).

“On the other hand, the value of corn production was 1.3% higher than last year’s same quarter level,” it added.

Meanwhile, livestock production, which accounted for 15.5% of the total, fell by 6.7% in the third quarter. This was a reversal of the 2.5% expansion a year ago.

The value of livestock output dropped by 3.5% in the first nine months from the 2.4% growth in the previous year.

This as hog production slumped by 8% in the third quarter, reversing the 3.3% expansion a year ago.

“There were also more livestock hit by the ASF this third quarter compared to the quarter a year ago,” Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura Executive Director Jayson H. Cainglet said in mixed English and Filipino.

The latest bulletin from the Bureau of Animal Industry showed there are active ASF cases in 108 municipalities across 25 provinces as of Oct. 18.

There was also a drop in the value of production for goat (-4.1%) and carabao (0.5%). On the other hand, higher production was seen for dairy (6%) and cattle (0.9%).

Meanwhile, fisheries production declined by 5.5% in the third quarter, although improving from the 6.1% contraction in the same period in 2023.

Fisheries accounted for 14% of the agriculture sector’s total production in the quarter.

In the nine-month period, the value of fisheries output dipped by 0.9%, improving from the 7% contraction a year ago.

Double-digit declines were recorded for grouper or lapu-lapu (-31.9%), big-eyed scad or matangbaka (-23%), fimbriated sardines or tunsoy (-18.9%), Indian mackerel or alumahan (-18.8%); yellowfin tuna or tambakol (-18.6%), round scad or galunggong (-17.2%), tiger prawn or sugpo (-16.7%), mudcrab or alimango (-14.8%), slipmouth or sapsap (-14.7%); and  squid or pusit (-11.9%).

Production likewise declined for frigate tuna or tulingan (-7.5%), milkfish or bangus (-6.9%), Bali Sardinella or tamban (-6.7%), cavalla or talakitok (-4.6%), tilapia (-4.2%), and seaweed (-1.5%).

“The fisheries subsector also suffered from the adverse weather,” the Agriculture department said.

Mr. Cainglet said there were more typhoons this year compared to last year.

A number of storms and typhoons struck the country in the third quarter, resulting in significant agricultural damage.

These include the combined effects of southwest monsoon and Typhoon Carina (PHP 4.73 billion), Severe Tropical Storm Enteng (PHP 3.77 billion), and the combined effects of the enhanced southwest monsoon and tropical cyclones Ferdie, Gener, and Helen (PHP 1.09 billion), according to DA estimates.

Lone bright spot

Meanwhile, poultry was the only sector to post gains in the third quarter. Poultry production grew by 5.8%, faster than the 2.9% in the same period a year ago.

Poultry output expanded by 6.8% in the January-September period from 2.5% a year earlier. It accounted for 17.3% of the total value of agricultural production.

Growth was seen for chicken eggs (6.6%) and chicken (6%), while declines were seen in duck eggs (-5.7%) and duck (-3.2%).

Federation of Free Farmers National Manager Raul Q. Montemayor said that the contraction in overall farm output was also due to the sector’s vulnerability to shocks.

“While we can point to weather disturbances and animal diseases for the decline in output, it also reflects the low level of resiliency and vulnerability of the sector to external forces,” he said.

“The output decline was due mainly to a reduction in the volume, which was not able to offset a general upswing in prices,” he added.

Mr. Cainglet said that farmgate prices of palay and hog have continued to be low due to over importation and reduced tariffs. “Even the farmgate price of chicken, despite the growth, is below cost of production. The farmgate price of chicken is at PHP 90 per kilo,” he added.

The executive order slashing tariffs on rice imports to 15% until 2028 took effect in July.

Mr. Tiu Laurel said the government is working on measures to support the sector, such as continuing to develop a vaccine for ASF.

“We’re implementing changes to the rice cropping calendar and building infrastructure like water impounding dams to mitigate the impact of climate change on the farming sector,” he added.

The DA is targeting 1-2% agricultural growth this year.

The agriculture sector typically accounts for about a tenth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). It also provides about a quarter of all jobs.

The PSA is scheduled to release third-quarter GDP data today (Nov. 7). – Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter