For the peso portfolio, we recommend a neutral 50-50 split between fixed income and equities. While the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and US Fed rate cuts support risk assets, potential headwinds from tariffs and market volatility may call for a balanced approach to capture fixed income gains while maintaining equity exposure. In the dollar portfolio, we are adjusting our earlier guidance for 2Q 2025. We recommend a shift to 60% fixed income and 40% equities, reflecting a more defensive stance. This revision considers the potential downgrade in growth and earnings outlook following the recently announced reciprocal tariffs.
2025 Metrobank Forecast | 2026 Metrobank Forecast | 2027-2029 Metrobank Forecast | |
---|---|---|---|
GDP | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% |
Inflation | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
BSP Target Reverse Repurchase Rate | 4.75% | 4.25% | 5.00% |
Federal Funds Rate | 4.00% | 3.50% | 4.00% |
USD/PHP | 56.9 | 57.7 | 55.0 |
Gold prices stabilized after a sharp decline, primarily due to a significant easing of US-China trade tensions that diminished its appeal as a safe haven. Trading around USD 3,237 an ounce, the precious metal was impacted by the US temporarily lowering tariffs on Chinese products to 30% from 145% and China also lowering its tariffs on US goods to 10% from 125%. This led investors to shift toward equities and other riskier assets. Despite a strong year-to-date performance, the lack of details surrounding the trade agreement for now could prompt caution due to potential future volatility. Source: Bloomberg
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