Oil prices climb on hurricane impact ahead of US rate decision

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose on Monday as the ongoing impact of Hurricane Francine on output in the US Gulf of Mexico offset persistent Chinese demand concerns ahead of this week’s US Federal Reserve interest rate cut decision.

Brent crude futures for November settled at USD 72.75 a barrel, up USD 1.14, or 1.59%. US crude futures for October settled at USD 70.09, up USD 1.44, or 2.1%.

“We’ve still got the remnants of the storm,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler. “The impact is more on the production side than on refining. Therefore, it leans a little bit bullish.”

More than 12% of crude production and 16% of natural gas output in the US Gulf of Mexico remained offline in the aftermath of Hurricane Francine, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said on Monday.

Overall, however, the market remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Traders are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) rather than 25 bps, as shown by the CME FedWatch tool that tracks Fed fund futures.

Lower interest rates typically reduce the cost of borrowing, which can boost economic activity and lift demand for oil.

“A quarter-percent Fed rate cut could heighten traders’ concerns about the pace of oil demand growth,” Clay Seigle, an oil market strategist, said in an email.

The market may see conflicting trends if the Fed delivers a more aggressive rate cut, Seigle said.

“Bulls will feel more confident about resilient oil demand with a soft landing, while bears pushing spreads into contango will welcome reduced physical carrying costs,” Seigle said.

Contango is when front-month contracts are cheaper than future months.

Weaker Chinese economic data over the weekend dampened market sentiment, with the low-for-longer growth outlook in the world’s second-largest economy reinforcing doubts over oil demand, IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an email.

Industrial output growth in China, the world’s top oil importer, slowed to a five-month low in August while retail sales and new home prices weakened further.

China’s oil refinery output also fell for a fifth month as weak fuel demand and export margins curbed production.

Brent and WTI each gained about 1% last week but remain comfortably below their August averages of USD 78.88 and USD 75.43 a barrel, respectively, after a price slide around the start of this month driven in part by demand concerns.

(Reporting by Nicole Jao in New York, Robert Harvey in London, and Emily Chow and Trixie Yap in Singapore; Additional reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Alexander Smith, Will Dunham, and Nick Zieminski)