Global stocks set for modest gains, hinging on series of rate cuts

BENGALURU – Global stocks will brush aside recent market turmoil and gain modestly from current levels in coming months, according to a Reuters poll of equity strategists, amid rising expectations major central banks are set for a series of interest rate cuts.

Unwinding of large leveraged positions funded in Japanese yen and recent weaker US jobs data sent equity markets into a tailspin in early August, causing the global MSCI index to plummet about 9% from an all-time high set in mid-July.

But that key global index has since recovered almost all its losses and is now up around 14% for the year. Markets have swiftly moved away from recession concerns even though they are now pricing in more interest rate cuts than were expected just a few months ago.

Economists are predicting a more gradual easing cycle, given there has been no shift in the view the global economy will keep growing at a steady pace. Federal Reserve officials have said nothing to suggest more aggressive rate cuts are imminent.

“We think growth fears moved too far, and in places look overpriced relative to our central forecast,” said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX, rates, and emerging market strategy at Goldman Sachs.

“From a market standpoint, we again think it makes sense to lean against extreme concerns and keep faith in…continued expansion and decelerating inflation rather than imminent recession.”

The latest Reuters poll of over 150 equity strategists, stock brokers and portfolio managers taken Aug. 8-20 showed most major equity indices gaining further by year-end.

However, with 13 of 15 bourses surveyed already trading at or near their record highs, all but one were forecast to rack up single-digit gains from now until then.

In a May survey, analysts said while a run-up in global stocks was not yet over, it was beginning to show signs of fatigue.

Analysts in the August survey expected 13 out of the 15 equity indices polled to grow more slowly in 2024 versus last year, with only London and Toronto expected to better their 2023 performance.

While the benchmark US S&P 500 was forecast to trade near current record levels at year-end, the euro zone’s blue chip index, the STOXX50E was forecast to gain 3.4% from Monday’s close to 5,038 by end-2024.

Even India’s high-flying benchmark stock index, the BSE Sensex, was predicted to rise just over 3% from Monday’s close to a lifetime high of 83,000 by year-end.

Despite the tempered outlook, an outright global correction – a drop of 10% or more – was not expected over the coming three months, according to a 60% majority of analysts, 57 of 95, who answered an additional question.

That was mostly because a majority of strategists, 51 of 85, predicted corporate earnings to outperform expectations for the rest of the year in their local markets. The remaining 34 said earnings will underperform expectations.

“We believe the market may be in a goldilocks scenario with the Fed poised to cut rates”, inflation on a downward path, the job market contained, and the macro-economic picture resilient overall, said Michael Gibbs, Lead Portfolio Manager at Raymond James.

“(This) should drive earnings growth and support our positive bias for equities,” he added.

(Reporting by Hari Kishan; Additional reporting and polling by correspondents in Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, and Toronto; Editing by Ross Finley and Ana Nicolaci da Costa)